How could the European elections change the face of the EU?

Good morning. Four days of European parliament elections get under way with first votes cast today in the Netherlands: our parliament correspondent unpacks all you need to know. And our energy correspondent assesses the pressure to shift electric vehicle investments back to Europe.

How will the elections change the EU? Join me and colleagues in Paris, Rome and elsewhere for a subscriber-exclusive webinar on June 12 and put your questions to our panel. Register for your subscriber pass now. Your pass also gives you access to a recording of the event.

Poll dancing

Voting for the European parliament begins today, with the Dutch leading the way to the polls and a likely rightward shift in the chamber, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: The parliament’s first job will be to decide if European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen gets a second five-year term, as the first incumbent to run a pan-European campaign.

Von der Leyen is spending the day in Portugal after a whirlwind tour of the majority of member states, and will hit Austria and her native Germany over the weekend.

The entire election contest has failed to spark, constrained by the fact that von der Leyen’s chief opponent, the centre-left Nicolas Schmit, served in the same commission as her, and is essentially running on the same record.

Ursula, as her campaign prefers to call her, has played up her strengths during multiple crises, family values and love of nature.

Schmit prefers big rallies to the small group meetings of von der Leyen, and has sharpened his tone in recent days with attacks on his boss’s centralised leadership style, and talk of allying with Italy’s far-right Brothers of Italy.

The rise of the right and how to deal with them has been the dominant issue of this campaign.

Von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP) wants to co-opt forces further to the right, wooing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

But other centrist groups including Schmit’s socialists, the Greens and the liberal Renew, have signed a pledge not to back von der Leyen if she does so.

“The centre should hold but parliament will be more volatile and harder to get compromises,” said one EU diplomat.

People close to the EPP believe the panic is overblown. They say the centrist majority of the last parliament will be replicated, with a coalition of the Socialists and Liberals, and the Greens welcome too. The latter are expected to be among the biggest losers, according to polls.

So in order to get a simple majority of parliament votes for her confirmation hearing, which will probably happen in July, von der Leyen might have to rely on Meloni after all.

As for the Dutch, the far-right Freedom party is likely to repeat its victory from last November’s national election.

Chart du jour: Prison break

Overcrowded prisons continue to be a problem in Europe, as the overall incarceration rate continues to grow, according to a report by the Council of Europe to be published today.

High voltage

European carmakers invest more in electric vehicles than others — but don’t spend that money on the domestic market.

The question is whether measures against Chinese imports will encourage that investment back to EU shores, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: Electric vehicle sales are slowing in the EU, causing concern that a ban on internal combustion engines due to come in 2035 will not be feasible. Many of the EVs sold in the EU are (cheaper) Chinese models.

To protect Europe’s car industry, the European Commission launched an anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs last year, with results expected next week.

The NGO Transport & Environment (T&E) says that if the investigation results in tariffs, this could be an important first step to boost Europe’s EV industry.

European carmakers were responsible for the greatest share of €265bn of announced investments in EVs globally between 2021 and 2023, followed by the Chinese, a T&E study found.

But the lack of confidence in the domestic market meant that the majority of European manufacturers’ investments were directed to North America, where subsidies are bigger, and protective measures against Chinese cars stronger.

Stellantis, the Italian-American company that produces Fiat and Peugeot cars, has spent only a tenth of its EV investments in Europe, and 74 per cent in North America.

Julia Poliscanova of T&E said that the EU needed a clear industrial policy on EVs, with tariffs as “a good start”.

“We do need China, but it doesn’t mean we need to import it from China. We could produce it here,” Poliscanova said.

What to watch today

1. King Charles III, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron attend ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy, France.

2. European parliament elections begin with voting in the Netherlands.

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