Isolated Macron struggles to know what happens next

The writer is editorial director and a columnist at Le Monde

Amid the shocked, baffled or elated reactions elicited by the surge of the far right in the French parliamentary elections on Sunday night, one voice went uncharacteristically silent: that of Emmanuel Macron, whose miscalculation had led to the very upheaval he was committed to avoid.

When he was first elected president by defeating Marine Le Pen in 2017, Macron promised his voters that they would “never have a single reason to vote for the extremes again”. Seven years later, Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) gathered 11mn votes, increasing its showing to 33.2 per cent from 17.3 per cent in the 2022 parliamentary election’s second round. A broad left-wing front came second with 28 per cent, while Macron’s centrist alliance trailed in a distant third place with 20.8 per cent of the vote. A few minutes after the polls closed, the Élysée presidential palace published a short statement calling for “democratic and republican” forces to rally against the RN in the second round. But this appeal was quickly drowned out by conflicting interpretations from other leaders opposed to the far right.

Soon enough, a triumphant Le Pen proclaimed that the election had “erased the Macronist bloc”. Macronism, a concept that even its founder struggled to define, was declared dead on the scene on television sets. The rest of the evening made one wonder if Macron himself had not been erased: no one cared to mention him, not even his hitherto loyal interior minister, Gérald Darmanin. One of the few who approved of the president’s reckless decision to dissolve the National Assembly on June 9, Darmanin now has to fight to save his seat and has let it be known that he will not stay as minister “one more day”.

Other allies of the president have more or less elegantly deserted him over the past couple of weeks, starting with his former prime minister Edouard Philippe, who accused him of “having killed his majority”. With the 2027 presidential race now on the horizon, Philippe added: “Now it’s time to move on.”

Very much a solitary leader, Macron will now find himself increasingly isolated — this time, not of his own will

Gabriel Attal, Macron’s current prime minister, took it upon himself to run the two-week campaign despite having been kept in the dark about the decision to call the snap election. Macron’s candidates declined to have the president’s picture on their election posters — the best way to lose, as they saw it. Very much a solitary leader, Macron will now find himself increasingly isolated — this time, not of his own will.

France’s untested political situation, with the possibility of a far-right government for the first time since 1944, even opens the question of the president’s ability to complete his second term, which runs until 2027. In the event of a “cohabitation” which would force him to share power with Jordan Bardella as RN prime minister, Macron’s role will be uncomfortable. Though the French constitution, framed by Charles de Gaulle, gives the president a lot of power, lawyers describe the head of state as a colossus with clay feet — his power derives more from practice than from the text. If his prime minister, supported by a parliamentary majority, chooses the path of confrontation, he may get his way in numerous domains, including in defence, as he controls the budget.

On the margins of the G7 summit in June, Macron looked confident. “Foreign leaders know our constitution,” he told the press. But when two weeks later Le Pen stated that the position of “head of the armed forces” (chef des armées) conferred by the constitution was no more than an “honorary title”, that got under his skin. He rushed to make several appointments to senior positions which had been lagging behind in the defence sector, a sign that he foresees trouble. 

A different scenario after next Sunday’s second-round is that of a hung parliament, with no majority for any party but containing a strong far-right group. This may not simplify matters but lead instead to political paralysis, in which case the RN will demand the president’s resignation as the only way to solve the crisis. In a letter to his disenchanted fellow citizens on June 23, Macron committed himself to stay on, “to protect our Republic and our values”. But will he still be seen as a strong enough protector?

In an interview published in 2015 by the magazine Le 1, before he became president, Macron mused that the French longed for the figure of the king. He advocated “verticality” in the exercise of power and decried immobilism. Once in office, he embraced this “Jupiterian” vision, though he later claimed jokingly that Vulcan, the god of fire and the forge, suited him better. Icarus, punished for getting recklessly close to the sun, may now be more appropriate.