What to look out for in European parliament elections
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The direction of the EU will be set over the next four days when 370mn voters across the bloc cast their ballots in elections for the European parliament.
Top jobs, including Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second five-year term at the helm of the European Commission, will be influenced by the result of the election.
Though pan-European, the vote consists of 27 national races that will each reveal how citizens feel about the bloc’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the biggest conflict in Europe since the second world war, persistent inflation and near-record migrant arrivals.
Here are five things to look out for when the results start appearing on Sunday night.
Is Ursula von der Leyen on course for a second term?
The commission president is running as lead candidate (Spitzenkandidaten) for the centre-right European People’s Party, which is expected to win the most seats in parliament.
Her confirmation is a two-stage process. First, she must convince the European Council of EU leaders to back her for a second term, as part of a broader package of top jobs including the next council president and the bloc’s top diplomat.
Then she has to secure at least 361 votes in the 720-strong parliament, having scraped through by nine in 2019.
Several MEPs from her pro-EU majority have declared they will not back her, forcing her to reach out to the Greens and the nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
A senior EU diplomat told the FT she had “80-90 per cent chance in the council, 60 per cent in the parliament”. If she is rejected by parliament, EU leaders will have to agree on a new trio to fill the top jobs.
How big is the swing to the right?
A right-of-centre majority could emerge in parliament for the first time, counting the EPP, the ECR and the Identity and Democracy group led by France’s Marine Le Pen, plus non-affiliated MEPs from Germany and Hungary.
After already having worked with the ECR on weaker environmental rules, the EPP will be under pressure to strike a deal with the Socialists and liberals to maintain the pro-EU majority.
Both the S&D and Renew have ruled out formal co-operation with the ultraconservative ECR and the far right Identity and Democracy group.
If the ECR overtakes Renew as third-largest force, it could give it the right to claim the foreign policy chief and powerful EU commissioner jobs, in addition to chairing influential parliamentary committees.
How influential will the far right be?
Within the European parliament, lawmakers from national parties band together to form groups that receive money, staff and committee chair roles.
But the populist right has so far failed to form a “mega-group”, as their members are divided, particularly on Russia and the extent to which they should work on legislation or just systematically oppose it.
ID has traditionally been pro-Russia and in favour of leaving the EU. However, as Le Pen and other politicians in the group seek to appeal to voters in upcoming national elections, they have moderated their discourse.
Le Pen last month kicked Alternative for Germany (AfD) out of ID after its lead candidate said not all members of the Nazi paramilitary SS group were criminals. She wants to form a supergroup with Meloni’s ECR and members of the Hungarian ruling party, Fidesz, who have been excluded from the EPP and did not join any other group in the outgoing parliament.
Who are the national winners and losers?
In France, a heavy defeat would further weaken President Emmanuel Macron and make Le Pen’s campaign for the presidency in 2027 even harder to stop. The RN is projected to come in first, overtaking Macron’s party which could fall to a disastrous third place.
The rise of the AfD in Germany has been stunted by scandal. But it is still likely to beat all the members of the ruling coalition, in a further blow for the struggling chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a social democrat.
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni will strengthen her position in Europe, winning an expected 20 MEPs, up from five. Domestically, she will assert her dominance over the Italian right, crushing the League party of Matteo Salvini, which sits in ID.
In Austria, a win for the far-right Freedom party could presage a victory in the country’s general election in October.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will face his most serious test in years against a new opposition leader, Péter Magyar. His Fidesz party is forecast to lose three of its 12 seats. An even worse result could harm his ambition of masterminding a union of populist and far-right parties in Europe.
Will turnout drop?
In 2019 it was 50.7 per cent, up 8 percentage points after a decades-long downward trend. Another drop would increase questions about the EU’s democratic legitimacy. Many pro-European politicians, including parliament president Roberta Metsola of the EPP, have been trying to motivate young people to vote.
But recent elections in the Netherlands and France indicate that they are as likely to choose the extremes.
Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration message last year resonated with young Dutch people struggling to find affordable housing and well paid jobs, helping the veteran far right leader form a coalition government for the first time.
The heavy use of social media has led to warnings that Russia, China and others are seeking to influence the election through fake accounts and disinformation. A parliamentary staffer has been accused of spying for China while several MEPs are suspected of taking payment to spout Russian propaganda.
How will the European parliamentary elections change the EU? Join Ben Hall, Europe editor, and colleagues in Paris, Rome, Brussels and Germany for a subscriber webinar on June 12. Register now and put your questions to our panel at ft.com/euwebinar
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