Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for second term in trouble over Giorgia Meloni ties

Centre-left and liberal politicians have warned they will not back Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term as president of the European Commission if it includes a pact with Italy’s rightwing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the second-largest political group in the European parliament, and Renew, the liberal group led by the party of French President Emmanuel Macron, have threatened to block the German’s nomination if she seeks a deal with the Italian prime minister.

Von der Leyen will need a straight majority in the 720-seat European parliament, after elections on June 6-9. Back in 2019, the centre-left and the liberal groups joined her own centre-right European People’s party (EPP), securing her first term by just nine votes.

But in recent days their warnings about von der Leyen’s flirtation with Meloni’s Brothers of Italy — which has its roots in the neo-fascist party founded by the surviving allies of the late Italian dictator Benito Mussolini — have grown harder.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, on Friday said the next commission “must not be based on a majority that also needs the support of the far right”. He added: “The only way to establish a commission presidency will be to base it on the traditional parties.”

Meloni’s Brothers of Italy belongs to the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which wants to roll back Brussels’ powers, crack down on irregular immigration and water down climate-related regulation.

Von der Leyen in a debate last week said Meloni fulfilled the conditions she had set down for partners.

“She is clearly pro-European, against [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, she’s been very clear on that one, and pro-rule of law,” she said. “If this holds . . . then we offer to work together.”

The EPP is forecast to win 183 seats, with about 85 for ECR. The far right Independence and Democracy Group, dominated by France’s Marine Le Pen, could secure about 70 seats.

Some EPP members say they will not vote for von der Leyen, while Poland’s Law and Justice, and ECR member, will not either. Nor will France’s nativist Éric Zemmour, part of the ECR umbrella.

Von der Leyen will need the S&D’s projected 140 MEPs and the 80-plus seats Renew is expected to win.

“She should be focused on the pro-European majority between the EPP, S&D and Renew and potentially try to include the Greens,” said a senior S&D official. “That is the majority that advanced the EU project since its foundation. If she relies on the ECR she will lose the Socialists and Renew.”

They pointed out that the ECR also includes Vox, the enemies of Spain’s ruling Socialists.

And Poland’s EPP delegation will not back a coalition including Law and Justice, they suggested. “As a political family, we cannot support such an arrangement, and we made that clear in our declaration endorsed by S&D, Renew, Greens and the Left.”

Sandro Gozi, lead candidate for Renew, said the group would outright reject any formal deal with the ECR. “We are against all alliances with the extreme right in the European parliament — that is ECR and ID,” he said.

“We need to build a new political pact as we did in 2019 with the S&D and EPP. I cannot see any possibility of us doing the same with ECR and ID,” Gozi said. Of von der Leyen, he added: “She has put herself in a very difficult position.”

Meloni has expressed hope of building a rightwing “alternative majority” in the European parliament, which would exclude the left. She said she was seeking to replicate the ruling coalition in Italy, which includes the far right League, at a European level.

But while Meloni talks of seeking to forge a majority on the right, she recently ruled out a wholesale merger of ECR and ID, and has since kept a deliberate silence on Le Pen’s call to unite and form the second-largest group in the EU parliament.

“There are some in Meloni’s orbit who favour consolidation of the right but it’s not the predominant direction of travel,” said one EPP official.

“The Socialists are panicky. But we don’t see tangible indicators to be worried about,” the official added. “The next two weeks will be full of madness. But for us the key is that everyone calms down after the election.”

Additional reporting by Sam Jones in Berlin and Ben Hall in London