Why almost all the UK election predictions were wrongUnprecedented underestimate of Labour support confounded expectationsHow did this happen? Five takeaways from the UK electionOlder voters less reliable, the young turned out, and Remainers get their revengeTheresa May’s lead has dipped but is stronger than polls suggestConservatives on course to increase majority despite Labour running a strong campaignWhat are exit polls and are they reliable?In the past 25 years, the largest party’s total has never been wrong by more than 15 seatsWill young Labour voters turn out for the UK general election?Corbyn is winning over the youth, but they are less likely to vote than their eldersWhy is one polling firm projecting a hung parliament in the UK election?YouGov model shows Theresa May falling short of a majorityMore from this SeriesPolls more divided on Conservative leadFive surveys put Labour-Tory gap at between 6 and 14 pointsDissecting Labour’s advance in the polls ahead of UK electionTheory that campaigns do not matter in outcome of a vote will be tested to the limitHow my years as a City trader helped me beat the polls in 2015The FT’s election analyst explains why the results can confound predictionsHistory points to a convincing Conservative victoryDespite polls narrowing, a strong preference for May as PM suggests Tories will winConservatives make ground across England’s rust beltTories are on course to grab seats as manufacturing areas switch from LabourScottish Tories challenging SNP in seats where it countsConservatives look set to make gains amid shifts in party allegiance in key seatsTory lead in polls over Labour narrows againRecovery in polling for main opposition party did not come at the expense of the ConservativesWhat is behind Labour’s rise in the polls?Leaving out undecided voters may have exaggerated swing because the pool is smallerThe surprising surge of Scotland’s ToriesElection analyst Matt Singh translates local election results into Westminster seats
Why almost all the UK election predictions were wrongUnprecedented underestimate of Labour support confounded expectationsHow did this happen? Five takeaways from the UK electionOlder voters less reliable, the young turned out, and Remainers get their revengeTheresa May’s lead has dipped but is stronger than polls suggestConservatives on course to increase majority despite Labour running a strong campaignWhat are exit polls and are they reliable?In the past 25 years, the largest party’s total has never been wrong by more than 15 seatsWill young Labour voters turn out for the UK general election?Corbyn is winning over the youth, but they are less likely to vote than their eldersWhy is one polling firm projecting a hung parliament in the UK election?YouGov model shows Theresa May falling short of a majorityMore from this SeriesPolls more divided on Conservative leadFive surveys put Labour-Tory gap at between 6 and 14 pointsDissecting Labour’s advance in the polls ahead of UK electionTheory that campaigns do not matter in outcome of a vote will be tested to the limitHow my years as a City trader helped me beat the polls in 2015The FT’s election analyst explains why the results can confound predictionsHistory points to a convincing Conservative victoryDespite polls narrowing, a strong preference for May as PM suggests Tories will winConservatives make ground across England’s rust beltTories are on course to grab seats as manufacturing areas switch from LabourScottish Tories challenging SNP in seats where it countsConservatives look set to make gains amid shifts in party allegiance in key seatsTory lead in polls over Labour narrows againRecovery in polling for main opposition party did not come at the expense of the ConservativesWhat is behind Labour’s rise in the polls?Leaving out undecided voters may have exaggerated swing because the pool is smallerThe surprising surge of Scotland’s ToriesElection analyst Matt Singh translates local election results into Westminster seats
