FT-Michigan Ross poll: Biden’s election hopes fall as prices rise again
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The recent uptick in US inflation appears to have reversed any progress President Joe Biden has made in convincing voters he can do a better job of managing the economy than Donald Trump.
The poll, conducted between May 2 and May 6, finds that — after a slight uplift in April — Biden’s approval ratings on the economy fell back to levels that will make for depressing reading among the White House’s incumbents. That comes after price data showed US inflation might prove stickier than anticipated at the start of the year.
The findings add to the sense that the Biden administration’s messaging on the economy — much of which has been focused on gains US workers have seen to their wages — is not convincing voters.
Voters dislike Bidenomics
While economists and investors are trumpeting the stellar performance of US growth over the past 18 months, voters are not.
The poll shows 71 per cent of the 1,000 respondents believe economic conditions are negative. The figure is in line with earlier months, signalling that it has little to do with the news that growth slowed to an annualised rate of 1.6 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.
The survey suggests that Bidenomics, a set of policies primarily aimed at providing green manufacturing jobs and rebuilding the US’s creaking infrastructure, plays badly as a brand. Just 28 per cent of respondents said they thought the US president’s economic policies had helped America, compared with 49 per cent who thought they had made things worse. More respondents — 35 per cent — said they had hurt the economy a lot. That figure is the worst since the poll began in November 2023.
It is worth mentioning that other surveys point to a disconnect between how Americans feel about their own economic circumstances — often moderately positive — and those of the country, where they are overwhelmingly pessimistic.
However, the Michigan-Ross poll finds more than half of respondents — 51 per cent — believe they are worse off since Biden became president.
Voters are sceptical of US military aid
On the foreign policy front, the survey also provides some grounds for concern for the Biden campaign.
Slightly less than half of voters — 47 per cent — say the US is now providing too much military and financial aid to Israel. Again, that is a record high.
The tensions are playing out across US campuses, and in the key battleground of Michigan, where a high proportion of Muslim voters — who tend to lean Democrat — are among those who have signalled they will ditch Biden over his support of Israel.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemingly intent on his country’s troops entering Rafah, something the White House has repeatedly advised him against, the furore could worsen over the coming months.
The use of US funds for the war in Ukraine is even more unpopular, with 50 per cent of respondents saying the aid was too much. That number rose when respondents were told that Biden had recently approved a $95bn foreign aid package that includes money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Voters like Congressional efforts to ban TikTok
More than half of voters — 53 per cent — support the Congressional proposal to ban Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, unless the company is sold entirely to non-Chinese investors. Fifty-four per cent of respondents said it was fair to describe the app as a big source of fake news about important issues, while 45 per cent considered it a threat to national security.
Another set of questions, this time on trade, highlighted the American public’s anti-China sentiment.
When respondents were asked for their view on US solar panel manufacturers using foreign parts, 42 per cent of respondents thought imports should be restricted if they dented US growth or destroyed US jobs. That compared with 45 per cent who said they should be allowed if they lowered costs and spurred the adoption of solar energy.
An alternative question asking if components coming from China should be allowed, saw 47 per cent of respondents say they should generally be restricted, with just 40 per cent wanting the opposite.
That bodes well for the administration’s strategy to protect American industry with plans to quadruple tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports to 100 per cent.
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