EU referendum exposes class divide in British society

Young, university educated and middle-class Britons are most likely to want the UK to stay in the EU, according to a report that suggests the vote on membership of the bloc will “expose significant social division” in the country.

A study published on Wednesday by NatCen Social Research using data from opinion polls and the annual British Social Attitudes Survey found that those who feel they benefit from immigration, diversity and globalisation are also likely to want Britain to retain its membership of the EU.

“The referendum is not just about Britain’s relationship with the EU but is also a debate about what kind of a country Britain can and wants to be,” said the author of the report, John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.

Opinion polls on EU membership have closed in recent months but they still suggest that the UK will vote narrowly to remain in the bloc at the plebiscite David Cameron has vowed to hold before the end of 2017.

Only a quarter of Britons aged 18-34 said they intended to vote to leave the EU, according to the attitudes survey, with 69 per cent saying they would vote to remain, while the rest were undecided.

That compares with 46 per cent of those aged over 55 intending to vote for Brexit and 45 per cent saying they will opt to stay. A similar pattern of results was found in the other polls reviewed by Professor Curtice.

Any Briton under 58 years of age would have been unable to vote the last time the UK had a referendum on European membership — in 1975, when 67 per cent opted to stay in the then European Economic Community.

The report noted that one reason occasionally given for holding a referendum is that these younger people have not had a chance to consent to the EU.

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But “if the franchise were to be restricted to those who were unable to vote 40 years ago, the probability that Britain would vote to remain would be markedly greater”, concluded Prof Curtice.

Those with less formal education and from lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to want to vote to leave — a similar pattern that was seen regarding Yes voters in the Scottish independence referendum.

Of university graduates, 78 per cent want to remain, according to the report, but of those with no qualifications, the figure is 35 per cent. This pattern partly reflects how older people are less likely to have attended university.

In the three opinion polls surveyed by NatCen there were majorities to remain in the EU among those in social class AB, academic shorthand for those in managerial and professional jobs.

Among those in social class DE — semi- and unskilled workers — there were majorities to leave, or opinion was within the statistical margin of error.

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Unlike in last year’s Scottish referendum, where women were more likely to vote against secession than men, there is no clear gender difference in attitudes towards the EU, according to Prof John Curtice.

Among supporters of political parties, majorities of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters said they intend to vote to remain.

Conservatives were more finely split, with most polls showing no majority for either side if “don’t know” voters are included.

A large majority of United Kingdom Independence party supporters said they would vote to leave. But despite Brexit being the defining cause of Nigel Farage’s party, one poll shows 17 per cent of Ukippers keen to opt to stay in the bloc.

This article has been amended to state that majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters said they intend to vote to remain in the EU.