Support for Scottish independence hits record high, survey shows

Support for Scottish independence has reached a record level, according to the latest ScotCen survey, but anti-EU sentiment has also reached a record high.

The findings of the Scottish Social Attitudes survey complicate a potential second referendum on independence and underline how Nicola Sturgeon must decouple Brexit from the debate.

John Curtice, the author of the report said the findings even suggested that Ms Sturgeon “might have been wiser to have stayed her hand” and wait before launching a new push.

Two-thirds of Scottish voters believe the UK should leave the EU or that Brussels’ powers should be reduced. That figure stood at 53 per cent in 2014 and at 40 per cent in 1999 when the survey began.

Those who voted Remain at the June 23 referendum are also now questioning whether they were right to do so, with 56 per cent of them saying the EU should have fewer powers.

ScotCen interviewed 1,237 Scots aged 16 and above between July and December 2016.

“The commitment to the EU of many of those who voted to Remain does not appear to be strong enough that they are likely to be persuaded by the outcome of the EU referendum to change their preference for staying in the UK,” said Mr Curtice.

He added that “there is a risk that linking independence closely to the idea of staying in the EU could alienate some of those who currently back leaving the UK”.

The nationalism that has swept across Europe and beyond appears to have galvanised both Scottish nationalists and Eurosceptics. The researchers said there had been a stronger sense of national identity in Scotland and stronger views on how Scotland should be governed since the first independence referendum in 2014.

The nationalist movement will consequently enter any second referendum in a much stronger position.

The increase in support for independence has been particularly marked among younger people, with 72 per cent of 16-24 year olds backing independence compared with just 26 per cent of people aged 65 and over.

The researchers say “this means that, as today’s older voters come to the end of their lives, a majority for independence could emerge simply with the passage of time”.

“On current trends there is a real possibility that demographic change will help produce a majority for independence in the not too distant future anyway,” said Mr Curtice.