Pound jumps as polls suggest Brexit threat receding

Sterling is proving very sensitive to opinion polls of late as the UK’s EU membership referendum draws closer.

Yesterday the currency rallied on the back of a couple polls that showed the Remain camp was gaining support, despite several other polls showing the complete opposite, writes Mark Odell.

Today, another positive poll for those wanting the UK to remain in the EU had an impact. Having started the day on the back foot thanks to a broadly rallying dollar, sterling has rallied by 1 per cent to just over $1.46.

An Ipsos Mori survey for the Evening Standard put Remain on 48 per cent against 35 per cent for the Leave campaign. When incorporated into the FT’s poll of polls, the recent flurry of surveys has the effect of given the Remain camp a 6-point lead, with 46 per cent in favour of staying in the EU against 40 per cent of voters who want to leave. (Please note: the FT poll of polls had earlier given the Remain camp 47 per cent against 38 per cent for Leave. The data changed after a tweak to our methodology that reflects the dates of when the fieldwork was done rather than the publication date of each poll).

The pollsters said there were signs of moderately Eurosceptic Conservative voters swinging towards Remain, with 60 per cent of Tories now saying they will opt to stay in the EU.

However, these voters were also the group most likely to say they could change their minds.