Dwindling donations and MPs at risk: the SNP’s struggle against Labour in Scotland

Tommy Sheppard, who is running for re-election in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, is grateful for his hip replacement earlier this year. 

On a bright Saturday morning, the 65-year-old Scottish National party candidate scurries up and down stairs in tired apartment blocks seeking out likely voters in Craigentinny, one of the most impoverished areas in Edinburgh.

The SNP, deprived of donations amid a police investigation into alleged embezzlement of party funds, is mounting a shoestring campaign that relies on its army of motivated activists to repel the deep-pocketed Labour juggernaut. 

The SNP received no recordable donations in the first quarter, and now depends on public funds and candidates’ personal fundraising efforts.

Having received £9.5mn in campaign donations in the first three months of this year, Labour has been spending big — from prominent billboards on Glasgow motorways to early leafleting across constituencies. Up to June 8, it had spent about £76,000 on Facebook and Instagram advertising, compared with the SNP’s £1,830. 

“It’s 50-50,” said Sheppard, who is defending a notional majority of 11,796 following boundary changes, of his chances against Labour challenger Chris Murray. “And it’s like that in 20-25 seats across [Scotland’s] central belt — it could be very bad or we could do very well.”

SNP figures are privately concerned about polling that shows the party could be knocked back to about the six seats it held before the post-independence referendum surge of 2015. But others point to other polls that show the SNP is still in the fight to remain the largest party north of the border, keeping alive its call for an independent Scotland.

An Ipsos poll released on Wednesday has the SNP and Labour neck-and-neck at 36 per cent in Scotland. Voters are increasingly minded to vote tactically, the survey found, with this trend more pronounced among those intending to vote Labour and Conservative than the SNP.

For candidates such as Sheppard, getting the core vote out will prove vital to defend the SNP against the powerful pincer movement of Labour’s broader UK revival and an electorate frustrated with the nationalists’ 17-year tenure in Scotland. 

Sheppard’s team has identified 21,000 people in his constituency who have voted for the SNP or could do so because of issues such as Brexit — a subject on which his party is more vocal in its opposition than Labour. His activists have approached more than half of them so far, making face-to-face contact with a third. Leaflets go through the doors of absentees, inviting them to get in touch.

“Winning an election isn’t about how much support you have, but how many supporters you can turn out,” said the Northern Ireland-born former comedy club impresario, who has represented the area since 2015. 

Most of those who answered the door to his teams of canvassers pledged their renewed support, he said, with many taking posters to put in their windows. But there was the occasional forceful “no”, some who were undecided and others who expressed disenchantment with all politicians. 

One of the undecideds, Stuart, is a natural supporter, but is focused on getting “the Tories out” and is disillusioned after the police investigation into the SNP. “I trusted them, but that has put the movement back 10 years.” The music teacher welcomed new leader John Swinney’s focus on child poverty. “I’ve had kids [in class] who have not eaten,” he said. “I gave lunch money to one last week.” 

Sheppard said he had not detected a swing towards Labour on the doorstep, but acknowledged there were disgruntled SNP voters who wanted to “send a message” by sitting the election out “on the sofa”. 

“So it’s quite worth fighting in the margins,” he said, given the contest could be decided by a couple of thousand votes.

Labour, recognising Scotland as an important pillar for a healthy Westminster majority, has been love bombing the country, sending Sir Keir Starmer and senior shadow cabinet ministers north. Scottish donors have been flocking to Labour’s administration-in-waiting.

“We are raising a lot of money from our trade union colleagues, membership and private donors,” said Ian Murray, who was first elected in the safe Labour seat of Edinburgh South in 2010. “I haven’t really seen much of a footprint from the SNP because they’ve no message to give.”

An SNP official said: “Labour are very much buying their reach on Facebook, where a large chunk of voters are.” 

The SNP is planning a mix of organic sharing and targeted advertising, banking on its wider reach thanks to its larger — if declining — membership of about 73,000. While Scottish Labour does not disclose its membership, estimates have been made of around 16,000. 

Sheppard, who had been fundraising with Burns suppers and other ticketed events before the election was called, has more than the £17,300 that electoral rules say he can deploy on his campaign.

“Our strength is we can put more people on the streets,” said Danny Aston, an SNP councillor. “Labour can’t match us — we make up for the lack of money with shoe leather.”

Additional reporting by Peter Andringa