The mood in Ukraine and Russia as war looms

This is an audio transcript of the Rachman Review podcast episode: The mood in Ukraine and Russia as war looms

Gideon Rachman
Hello and welcome to the Rachman Review. I’m Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times. In this week’s edition, we’re looking at the mood in Russia and Ukraine as the threat of war grows. My guests are the FT’s correspondent Polina Ivanova, who joins us from the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, and Sabine Fischer of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Russia specialist recently in Moscow now back in Berlin. I myself was recently in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, where the American and British policymakers I spoke to were convinced Vladimir Putin is poised to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So on the brink of war, what’s the atmosphere in Moscow and Kyiv?

[MUSIC FADES]

It was an appearance that will go down in history. Vladimir Putin met Russia’s security council in one of the most ornate halls in the Kremlin. Before the eyes of the cameras, he bullied some of Russia’s most powerful men into agreeing with his plan for Moscow to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk, parts of Ukraine, as independent republics. Here’s a brief clip of Putin’s exchange with a stuttering Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service.

(Speaking in foreign language with overlapping English translation)

Vladimir Putin
Say it directly.

Sergei Naryshkin
I would support the suggestion about recognition.

Vladimir Putin
I will support or I am supporting?

Sergei Naryshkin
I am supporting it.

Vladimir Putin
So yes or no? Just say it.

Sergei Naryshkin
Yes, I am supporting the suggestion about making Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics to make them part of the Russian Federation. We . . . 

Vladimir Putin
That’s not what we are talking about. That’s not what we are discussing. We are talking about recognising them as independent entities. Yes or no?

Sergei Naryshkin
Yes, I support the suggestion about recognising their independence.

Vladimir Putin
Thank you. You can take your seat.

Gideon Rachman
The reaction from the White House was rapid. Here is US President Joe Biden.

Joe Biden
This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belong to his neighbours?

Gideon Rachman
I began my conversation with Polina Ivanova and Sabine Fischer by asking Sabine if she felt that Putin’s meeting with Russia’s security council and his subsequent speech represented a turning point.

Sabine Fischer
Well, I wouldn’t call it a turning point, really. I mean, Putin in his speech he repeated many of the things that he outlined already in his famous, infamous article about Ukraine that was published last summer. He added some quite interesting security details so the alleged plans of Ukraine to obtain nuclear weapons, etc. But I mean, we had some preparation for this. And it also was very, very interesting to see how it was all done. You know, the public meeting of the security council where he basically forced, I think we have to say, he forced the members of the security council that were present to explicitly recognise the decision. So in a way, he basically he involved all the Russian political elite in a decision that some of them very obviously were not comfortable with.

Gideon Rachman
That scene you described was extraordinary and I think will be something people watch decades from now. The immense theatricality of it, but what you say also struck me, that the sense that even the people closest to Putin, hardliners, some of them at least, clearly aren’t comfortable with what he’s doing.

Sabine Fischer
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I have to say that I was surprised about Naryshkin, so the director of the FSB (sic), because I mean, he is someone I would expect to simply support this policy and obviously, he basically, he completely lost it, you know. And he wasn’t able to keep up the script and everything and was then scolded by Putin. That was really surprising. The prime minister also was really, really interesting because, I mean, he talked about how the government would do everything to compensate for the sanctions, how they were very successful with import substitution, etc in over the past few years and would keep the economy going. And then he tried to go back to his seat and Putin called him back and said, no, no, no, you have to explicitly say that you support the decision. So that was really interesting. And I think it’s indicative in Mishustin’s case, for instance, for the attitude of people who deal with economic issues because they’re really not happy and they fear western sanctions. So there is concern, but I think the scene, the situation also demonstrated again that Vladimir Putin focuses exclusively on security and economic issues are absolutely secondary.

Gideon Rachman
You’re just back from Moscow. You came back on Sunday, and you’ve written that you felt the atmosphere amongst the people that you were talking to changed over the course of five days that you were there. Can you describe that?

Sabine Fischer
Yeah, definitely. I mean, you know, I talk to many people during that week, and moderates and hawks alike, no one really expected that. Perhaps with one exception. Yeah, but that person I talked to on Saturday, when it was already clear where this was going. Everybody else was rather relieved actually about these cautious signs of de-escalation. Putin met with Lavrov and Shoigu on Monday last week, and they had this conversation about whether or not diplomatic efforts made sense. And Lavrov said yes, yes, yes they make sense. And Putin agreed. Then Scholz visited Moscow on Tuesday. The visit was generally very well received, and everybody just hope that, yeah, now we’re moving towards de-escalation so people really didn’t expect that. And this changed basically on Thursday afternoon, when the foreign ministry handed over their response to the response from the US and Nato to the US ambassador, and then they published it immediately so I think after ten minutes it was out. And reading that text, I think everybody already understood that, OK, there isn’t much room left for diplomatic progress. And then on Friday, the de facto authorities in the two territories and in the Donbas announced mass evacuation. Yeah, and from then it was really clear where it was going. And this, of course, also had an impact on people in Moscow.

Gideon Rachman
So ordinary people became more concerned then once that happened.

Sabine Fischer
I mean, I didn’t talk to many ordinary people in the country for five days. You meet some people. You have conversations with experts, with colleagues, with journalists. I mean, I could feel it in the experts, as I said, the moderates and the hawks alike. I talked to some friends who are more in the liberal spectrum of, you know, NGO people, experts, and they were extremely concerned also with regard to the domestic consequences of an escalation both with Ukraine but also with the west over European security because, I mean, their concern was that this escalation would basically accelerate and strengthen the autocratic trends that we have seen evolving in Russia over a very long time again, but more drastically over the past two years. And of course, I mean, you know, just to give you one example, I talked to friends on the weekend who have a son, who is 16 years old; he’ll soon be 17; he will finish school. And they are now thinking about how to get him out of the country because they fear that he will be drafted, and that he will have to fight. And these are the concerns at the societal level. I don’t think that the political leadership has to fear immediate resistance. I don’t see that because people are really tired. But a larger war against Ukraine, possibly with a really significant death toll and really significant economic implications, I think, would become a problem for the political leadership in the medium and long term.

Gideon Rachman
Polina, then, so that’s the mood in Moscow. Tell us about how things feel in Kyiv. Have you felt a similar shift in atmosphere in the period you’ve been there?

Polina Ivanova
I mean, yes, it’s this growing unease, I think would be the way that I would describe it. But still, Kyiv does not feel like it’s a city that could be under siege at any moment. There isn’t panic. You don’t see people stocking up on goods and supplies. There’s a degree to which it feels emptier. And speaking to people who work in hospitality, for example, they do notice a shift in the past week or so that the city is less busy than it was before, and maybe people are packing their bags and heading out. But what’s important to remember is that for Ukrainians, this is not a new conflict. This is not a new war. They’ve been in a state of war for eight years and suffered significant losses over the past eight years so people are quite hardened. They’re also very sceptical of anything that could be inducing panic. They’re very conscious, you know, phrases like disinformation and hybrid war and propaganda, you know, they’re very much embedded here in people’s normal lives. They’re very used to being sceptical of what they hear, which is not to say that people don’t think that the threat is real. They’re very aware of it, but they treat everything with care. So daily life continues as normal and the government is urging calm as well. So that, I think, is kind of contributing to the fact that it’s still pretty peaceful and people are still going about their daily lives.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah, I must say I was at the Munich Security Conference where Zelensky spoke, and there was a sense that the westerners there, particularly the British and the Americans who’ve been very concerned for some time, were more concerned about what might be about to happen even than the Ukrainians. I mean, Zelensky was asked, “Aren’t we taking a risk coming here? Aren’t you scared going back to Kyiv?” And he said, “No.” But do you think that people in Kyiv, either the official level or at the street level, really believe what the Anglo-American intelligence people are saying, which is there could be an assault on Kyiv, getting there within hours and really going all the way into the city quite soon?

Polina Ivanova
I think not. I think people are aware that this is being discussed in the media. It’s not like they haven’t seen the headlines. They’re aware of it. I think people are very concerned, especially in the past few days, about the states of the eastern regions and the fact that Putin has implied that Russia’s so-called recognition of these areas actually extends to a much wider area than just the separatist-held enclaves. But I think they treat that with a degree of scepticism still, especially, I think, because they’re listening to their government, which is telling them to stay calm. Zelensky, on Monday night after Putin’s speech, held a very long meeting of the security council, after which he gave a very calm and sort of measured speech. There wasn’t a sense of panic in it, and there were no bellicose statements in it either. It was, you know, Ukraine is committed to a peaceful and diplomatic path, and we’re not afraid, and we won’t budge an inch. And the next day, he also said that he does not believe that there would be an intense war against Ukraine or that Russia would escalate further. Alongside his ministers, he’s urging calm, and I think people are listening. His culture minister thanked Ukrainians for kind of being focused, and despite the anxiety, you know, carrying on. The defence minister talked about how the strength of Ukrainians is their cool head. So I think that’s it’s not the case that people are ignoring the threats, but there’s a degree of scepticism, and at the same time, it’s a sort of focused preparation rather than fear and panic. I think it’s interesting to compare it to Lviv in western Ukraine, which has a different national attitude and a different role where I was a few days ago. And the city is much more in the mindset of preparing people, social media talking about training with weapons and the territorial defence units are very strong there. The city’s, you know, talking all the time about preparations, whether it’s water supply, could handle power cuts and this kind of thing. So there’s a slightly different attitude there. And I think that kind of speaks to the differences in Ukraine in attitude, both to the threat of war and to their own identity.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah. And one indicator people are watching is embassies, basically. Who’s getting out of Kyiv? The British and the Americans went quite early. What are the others doing? In particular, what are the Russians doing?

Polina Ivanova
Yes, the Americans and the Canadians and a few other embassies moved to Lviv in western Ukraine about a week ago. Subsequently, they have also started spending their nights in Poland across the border, which is only, I think, 70 kilometres away from Lviv in western Ukraine. This sparked quite a lot of pushback, both from the Ukrainian government as well as from the Ukrainian people, who did not think that it was a reasonable measure, who felt that it was almost an invitation to attack Kyiv. I mean, that’s the kind of harder line position that I’ve heard from some people. Other people are more understanding about the fact that there is, you know, security protocols and things like that probably dictates embassy actions as well. But I have heard from quite a few people that there’s a sense of, well, you sort of abandoned us here because without foreign presence, Kyiv is more open to attack, I guess. And as far as I know, the Russian foreign ministry on Tuesday said that it was evacuating its Russian employees from Ukraine as soon as possible, which is an ominous sign indeed.

Gideon Rachman
So, Sabine, I mean, everything points really towards things getting much worse towards war, to be blunt. The west now is reacting. You’re back in Berlin. And also on Tuesday, Germany announced the suspension of Nord Stream 2. Were you surprised they did that quite so quickly?

Sabine Fischer
No, I wasn’t surprised, really, because I know that many people outside Germany, and by the way also inside Germany, have been very worried about particularly Chancellor Scholz’s attitude towards the pipeline. But I mean, honestly, to me, it became clear already in January that this government would have no wiggle room whatsoever to keep the pipeline going if the situation escalated between Russia and Ukraine. So I’m not really surprised. I think it was a good decision to do that immediately, because, I mean, compare this situation to February, March, April 2014, when Russia, as a first step, really blatantly violated international law by annexing Crimea and the reaction from the EU was really rather lukewarm. There were targeted personal sanctions against a relatively small group of people. And then the sanctions mechanism evolved really slowly, and sectoral economic sanctions were imposed only when the situation really escalated in the Donbas in July and MH17 was shot down. So now we have a different situation. And I think it is good that the EU and Germany made it clear from the very beginning that they are serious about the sanctions, and the decision of the German government and Scholz’s announcement, I think, should really restore the trust that was lost in the early days of the crisis, when Olaf Scholz in particular tried to avoid, let’s put it like this, Nord Stream 2 as a topic.

Gideon Rachman
And yet there doesn’t seem like anything we’re gonna do will now will (sic) deflect Putin from his chosen course. We’re all adjusting to a new situation now, which is the threat of war. How deep an adjustment do you think Germany and the wider European Union will make? I mean, we’ve seen Putin unleash wars before, and life for us went on more or less as normal. Do you think, however, that this is a new thing, really and a really massive change in the situation?

Sabine Fischer
Well, I think it’s a massive escalation of a conflict that we have been living with for a long time. As Polina said, Ukraine lives with or has been living with war for eight years now. And indeed, I do think that we will have to live with this for a rather long time because given the domestic situation in Russia, I mean, think of the security council meeting on Monday. This was a very strong demonstration of Putin’s power over the political system and, of course, also over the society. And I think this is going to last because I don’t see him step back in 2024. I think he will remain in power and he will, of course, seek ways to stabilise his own power via repressions. And given the constitutional changes of 2020, you know, he has the possibility to remain in the Kremlin until 2036. So this is the prospect, and we indeed we have to adjust. And, I mean, one thing that encourages me when I look at the past few weeks really is that co-ordination and co-operation among western allies among European Union and transatlantically actually worked very well. So I really hope that we will be able to continue this way. And of course, what is also extremely important is political, economic and also military security support for Ukraine. And also, I mean, the EU will really have to think about this Eastern Partnership policy about its relations with its immediate neighbours in the east because the situation will remain very, very tense for probably a long time to come. And maybe one last point on Putin’s own rationale, I mean, I agree with you, we cannot expect the sanctions that are being imposed now by the European Union also by the United States, to have an immediate effect because President Putin is absolutely focused on security. I think his policy also has a very emotional dimension, you know, particularly his policy towards Ukraine, but also with regard to European security. He’s trying to finalise unfinished business, and this is the relationship with Ukraine. This is correcting developments in European security that were wrong from his perspective, and this is much more important for him than the economic development and also the wellbeing of his own population, so the economic development and socio-economic situation in Russia. So sanctions are important also as a signal from western countries that they protest Russian policy, but we cannot expect them to have an immediate effect on Putin’s Russia now. What we can hope is that they will have an effect on the political system as a whole and perhaps over time, change the rationale of other actors in the political system.

Gideon Rachman
Thanks, Sabine. Let me finish with Polina in Kyiv. We talked about the threat of war, but some of the Ukrainians I met in Munich were worried, primarily at the moment, about the state of the economy and about therefore the stability of the government. And one theory is that Putin is hoping that Ukraine might collapse from the inside simply because of the overwhelming economic and psychological pressure he’s putting on the country. How does that feel to you?

Polina Ivanova
I mean, a lot of people are worried about the economic hit. The government has been talking about that for a few weeks. From analysts and politicians here and from Zelensky’s advisers, you hear a lot more, I think, about the risks of destabilisation than you do actually about the risks of a full blown assault. After a session of the security council on Wednesday in Ukraine, the head of security council proposed introducing a state of emergency nationwide. He couched this very much in terms again of maintaining stability and order. Officials have said that it won’t dramatically transform the daily lives of Ukrainians. It proposes prohibiting large scale public events, demonstrations and increased monitoring on the entry points and exit points of cities. It’s couched very much in terms of maintaining calm, maintaining stability, at the same time, of course, it is revealing of Ukraine’s increased preparation for the risk of war or the risk of actions that could be taken to destabilise the country from within.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Gideon Rachman
That was Polina Ivanova in Kyiv ending this edition of the Rachman Review. We were also joined by Sabine Fischer in Berlin. I have a feeling a lot’s gonna happen in the next few days, so please join us again next week.

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