The next phase in the US election

Good morning and welcome to the US Election Countdown. I’m subbing in today for Steff Chávez, who is in the process of moving from Chicago to her new home turf of Washington DC. She’ll be back in the saddle next week.

Super Tuesday is often one of the first major mile markers in the primary election season. This year, it has become the last one that really matters; we already know the de facto Democratic and Republican nominees.

Nikki Haley, Donald Trump’s last remaining challenger, exited the race yesterday after she lost all but one of the Republican primary contests held on Super Tuesday to the former president. (You can see our full results map here. Free to read.) While Haley declined to endorse her rival, Trump did get the backing of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell despite years of hostility between the two men.

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Haley only scored victories in Washington DC and Vermont during her White House bid, but she defied some sceptics with her ability to raise large sums of money from deep-pocketed and grassroots donors.

Her withdrawal will make it easier for Trump to raise money through the Republican National Committee, since he will no longer have any significant internal rivals. The fact remains, however, that Trump has massive legal bills to pay too.

Trump and Biden have already begun jockeying to win Haley’s share of the vote. Trump invited Haley’s camp to “join the greatest movement in the history of our nation”. Biden, too, has said: “There is a place for [Haley’s supporters] in my campaign.” The president’s re-election team also has plenty of cash on hand to court them.

On the Democratic side of the ticket, Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips — a long-shot challenger to Biden — dropped out of the race yesterday. But Minnesota proved a pesky state for Biden for other reasons. Nineteen per cent of Democrats there voted “uncommitted”, mainly to protest against his stance on the war in Gaza.

In the coming days we’ll be watching to see whether the centrist No Labels group decides to put a candidate forward after they reportedly said they would decide by March 8 whether to enter the race. But first, we’ll hear from Biden in his State of the Union address later this evening. More on that below.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• The Biden administration will target billionaires and corporate America with sweeping tax rises as part of a plan to cut the US’s record national debt.

• Joe Biden’s re-election campaign joined TikTok to connect with young voters. Now, a bipartisan bill seeks to ban the social media channel from app stores unless Chinese owner ByteDance divests it.

• New York’s effort to restore a sense of security to subway riders and transit workers has played out amid a wider political fight about crime in America.

• Who will Nikki Haley’s voters turn to in November? (Washington Post)

• Elon Musk posted on X that he was not donating to either candidate in the White House race, despite reports he recently met Trump. (CNN)

• Here’s why the Associated Press isn’t calling Trump or Biden the “presumptive nominee” yet. (AP)

Behind the scenes

When Joe Biden makes his State of the Union address tonight, it will be a high-stakes chance to bolster his case for re-election.

Speaking to a joint session of Congress, he’ll face potentially hostile opposition from Republican lawmakers who may heckle and jeer at him as they did last year. He’ll also have to address issues that have split his own party, such as the surge of immigrants at the US-Mexico border and his response to the war in Gaza.

The FT’s reporters in Washington expect Biden to use the annual speech to sharpen his differences with Trump and offer a glimpse at his second term agenda. On the economy, he’s expected to renew his call for higher taxes on the wealthy and big businesses. He’s also likely to take aim at corporations for raising consumer prices.

On a lighter note, deputy Washington bureau chief Lauren Fedor had this to share with Election Countdown readers:

“Another bit of inside baseball from the chamber that is always fun to watch: who arrives early to nab an aisle seat to shake the president’s hand as he enters. Eliot Engel, the former New York congressman who was ousted in a primary by Jamaal Bowman, had a reputation for always parking himself by the door in an effort to be the first legislator to greet the commander-in-chief. Who will have that distinct honour this year?”

Datapoint

In Tuesday’s newsletter we said that the devil would be in the details when it came to this week’s primary results. Now we’re starting to get a clear picture of those trends.

My colleagues Eva Xiao and Oliver Roeder have compiled charts that illuminate Trump’s base [Free to read]. As in previous elections, Trump’s vulnerabilities are concentrated in areas with higher levels of college education and income, more younger voters and more unaffiliated or secular voters.

The question this leads us to, though, is who is best poised to pick off these voters? Can Trump pull them into the fold or will they cross party lines to support Joe Biden? The candidate who wins these demographics will be well positioned to win the presidency.

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You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Further, exit polls from six states reveal stark differences between Haley and Trump voters. These are gaps that the former president will have to bridge to avoid losing Haley supporters to the Biden campaign.

South Carolina voter Tony McMurtury, who told the FT he planned to vote for Haley in the state’s primary last month, provides an example:

“I think Trump tried to overthrow the American government in 2020,” said McMurtury, 79. “I am a Republican. But I would vote for Biden before I would Trump.”

Viewpoints

• Peter Spiegel explores the mystery of the “secret non-Trump voter” as the former president continues to underperform pollsters’ predictions.

• The Supreme Court’s conservative majority has delivered rulings that aid Trump and play politics with the constitution, writes Edward Luce.

• The challenges Trump faces in the general election are being overstated, says Philip Bump. (Washington Post)

• The press is all over Biden right now. They should be. (Politico Magazine)

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This newsletter has been amended since initial publication to correct the name of the lawmaker who unseated Eliot Engel