The race to replace Mario Draghi

The Bundesbank president has been a thorn in Mario Draghi’s side, pushing for the bank to ditch the crisis-era stimulus far earlier than desired by most others on the governing council and voting against Mr Draghi on crisis-fighting measures. His chances of securing the top job looked slim after it emerged that Berlin would push for the presidency of the European Commission. However, some in Berlin think that he could make a comeback. His candidacy is contentious for southern European countries that have benefited from Mr Draghi’s expansionary approach.

A veteran of European politics and finance, Finland’s former central bank governor and EU commissioner has played an important role not only in shaping ECB policy, but also in helping build the region’s banking union. He appeals to Berlin and other northern European capitals for his hawkish credentials. However he has positioned himself as more of a centrist than Mr Weidmann by calling for patience in scaling back stimulus, an advantage in negotiations between hawkish northern and dovish southern political camps. His main disadvantage is his age — Mr Liikanen would be 77 at the end of an ECB president’s eight-year term. 

The Banque de France governor is seen as the favourite candidate from the eurozone’s second-largest economy. He has been the central bank governor in Paris since the end of 2015. A fluent German speaker who hails from the border region of Alsace-Lorraine, his chances may be dented by the fact that in Jean-Claude Trichet, France has already had an ECB president. He has indicated he would be a continuity candidate, signalling that he was unlikely to radically alter current policy and praising Mr Draghi’s work to broaden the ECB’s monetary instruments and implement a banking union. 

The Frenchman, 49, is the preferred choice of many inside the ECB to take the top job and is considered a safe pair of hands in a race with few outstanding candidates. Mr Cœuré’s views have become increasingly hawkish and he has been in the camp pushing for the ECB to drop some of its crisis-era support sooner rather than later. That shift will appeal to northern member states. But Mr Cœuré’s chances could be scuppered by an internal appointments rule that does not allow sitting ECB executive board members — which Mr Cœuré has been since 2012 — to become president. Much will also depend on how hard Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, is prepared to push his candidacy.

The Dutch central bank governor is a natural choice for those looking for a non-German alternative to Mr Weidmann. The Dutchman shares the Bundesbank president’s hawkish views on many of the ECB’s policies. However, Mr Knot — unlike his German counterpart — backed Mr Draghi’s promise to do “whatever it takes” to protect the euro. That promise included a commitment to buy government bonds in almost unlimited quantities to counter market speculation that the currency could collapse. Mr Knot, 51, has run De Nederlandsche Bank since 2011 and before that served in the country’s finance ministry. His chances could be dimmed by the fact a Dutchman, Wim Duisenberg, has already held the presidency of the ECB. Southern European capitals are concerned that Mr Knot is “more Weidmann than Weidmann”, as one EU diplomat puts it.

Finland’s central bank governor shares some of Mr Liikanen’s advantages, not least his nationality. Along with the Netherlands and Germany, Finland is among the club of eurozone countries that wants the ECB to wind down its emergency-era crisis-fighting measures. Mr Rehn served as EU commissioner for economic affairs through the worst of the crisis years and is credited with playing a key role in deals that held the currency union together and bailouts for the Greek economy. His main drawback is a relative lack of central banking experience: the 56-year-old joined the Bank of Finland only in 2017 and became its governor in July. It is also likely southern Europeans would object to a figure who was so deeply involved in the austerity drive that followed the bailouts.

The managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone’s bailout fund, is regarded as a potential German compromise candidate to lead the ECB. He has previous experience within the German Finance Ministry as well as at the IMF, before working as director-general for economic affairs at the European Commission from 2001 to 2008. As head of the ESM, he was a central figure in euro crisis bailout package negotiations with Greece. However he has previously opposed further political or fiscal union within the zone, putting him at odds with the ambitions of France’s president Emmanuel Macron.