Brexit endgame points to snap election in Ireland

Cracks in the alliance that underpins Leo Varadkar’s minority government in Ireland have raised the prospect of an early election if a resolution to Brexit is agreed.

The taoiseach’s Fine Gael party signed a pact in 2016 with the largest opposition party, Fianna Fáil, enabling Mr Varadkar to conduct difficult Brexit talks — which present multiple dangers for Ireland — without the risk of his administration falling.

But a hospital spending row has soured ties between the two parties, leading government and opposition figures to say that an election could be called if there is clarity on Britain’s EU exit.

“Whenever Brexit is settled I think the detente will end,” said one minister in the Varadkar government. “It has gone past its sell-by date but we all have to get on with it for another period.”

Ireland is the EU country most exposed to a chaotic British withdrawal, which is due on March 29. Dublin is worried about losing vital trade, while a new “hard” border with Northern Ireland could damage the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement.

Mr Varadkar’s “confidence-and-supply” deal with Fianna Fáil, which means it votes with the government on key issues, was due to lapse last December. But Brexit turmoil prompted a pledge from the opposition party to avoid an election until 2020.

UK prime minister Theresa May wants the EU to offer fresh concessions to make clear that a “backstop”, aimed at preventing new customs and regulatory checks on the Irish border, will not be permanent.

There is wide support in the Irish parliament for Mr Varadkar’s rejection of Mrs May’s demand for legally binding changes.

But a huge overspend on a new children’s hospital in Dublin, the cost of which more than doubled in two years to at least €1.4bn, has created fresh tension. Fianna Fáil says it was kept in the dark about the costs by Mr Varadkar’s Fine Gael party.

Fianna Fáil is still upholding the confidence-and-supply deal, refusing last week to vote against the health minister over the hospital. The party said it would be “national sabotage” to spark an election at such a critical point in the Brexit process. It will also back emergency laws, presented by the government last Friday, which would take effect in a no-deal.

But the party is restive — unable to function fully as an opposition force yet not sharing the spoils of office.

“We’ve been associated, by propping them up, with their mistakes and that’s driving our people mad. They’re losing patience with us and they’re saying it’s indefensible. They’re asking: how much more do we have to take?” said one Fianna Fáil figure.

Micheál Martin, Fianna Fáil leader, made clear at the party’s weekend conference that he would not topple the deal. Ireland needs a government in place to have “any chance” of limiting damage from the “historic threat” of Brexit, Mr Martin said.

But several party MPs have argued that a Brexit settlement could end the arrangement with Mr Varadkar. “It would [allow] us as a party to operate more freely and independently in that decision-making process, in terms of whether to support the government or not,” said John Curran, a Dublin MP.

A weekend opinion poll, for the Sunday Business Post, put support for Fine Gael at 31 per cent, Fianna Fáil at 24 per cent and the opposition Sinn Féin party at 18 per cent. At the Sharm el-Sheikh summit between the EU and Middle East leaders on Monday, the taoiseach said he had a “sense” that a no-deal Brexit was increasingly unlikely: “We’ll either have a deal or have an extension.”

If the UK were to defer Brexit by extending the Article 50 exit process for a long period beyond March, it could also change the political dynamic, perhaps tempting Mr Varadkar to call a snap election in pursuit of a strengthened mandate for a new round of Brexit talks.

“If it’s a nine-month thing, maybe we’ll move,” said a Varadkar ally.

Government and opposition figures said a shorter Article 50 deferral until June would not open an Irish election window straight away — though it would intensify questions over the autumn budget, which Fianna Fáil would have to support if its deal with Fine Gael is to endure until 2020.

“The likelihood of going for one more budget is now more remote than it was a few weeks ago,” said David Farrell, head of politics at University College Dublin.

Similarly, a no-deal would not lead immediately to an election: “Not until we’re through the storm,” said a senior Fine Gael figure. “In a no-deal scenario, there’s no election because we’re implementing emergency measures, the rough end of it.”