North Macedonia’s nationalists set for electoral comeback

Voters in North Macedonia are likely to usher in the return to power of the nationalist VMRO party, in a potential setback to the country’s EU membership bid.

Parliamentary and the final round of presidential elections are taking place Wednesday in the small western Balkan nation, with polls projecting a win for the rightwing opposition. A VMRO comeback is likely to reset the political landscape in the small Balkan nation that became a Nato member but whose EU membership was blocked for years by Greece and more recently by Bulgaria.

Polls indicate that VMRO can count on about 40 per cent of the country’s voters, while the incumbent Social Democrats at only about a quarter of the electorate. In last month’s first round of presidential elections, President Stevo Pendarovski secured only 20 per cent of the vote, compared with the VMRO candidate, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, who received 40 per cent.

But real power rests with the prime minister, a job that is most likely to go to VMRO leader Hristijan Mickovski if the parliamentary elections confirm the trend set by the presidential race.

“Our victory is at hand,” Mickovski said on Monday. His party was in office for more than a decade until 2017, when it was voted out amid corruption allegations.

On the incumbent side, former premier and Social Democrat leader Dimitar Kovačevski — who would become PM in the event of his party winning — urged voters to cast their ballot in what he said was the “last call for Europe”.

EU membership talks, which Macedonia started in 2022, are likely to hit another snag if VMRO is back in office. The party has a strong nationalist vein and has rejected demands by neighbouring EU member Bulgaria to include references to Bulgarian history in North Macedonia’s constitution. The subject is sensitive to North Macedonian nationalists who claim a separate identity from Bulgarians, despite linguistic similarities.

The now outgoing government agreed to an EU plan to resolve the dispute in Skopje two years ago — but, as VMRO points out, that has not stopped Bulgaria from continuing to block accession talks until North Macedonia recognises their shared history.

The Bulgarian blockade has struck a nerve in the 2mn-strong nation, given that its Nato and EU bids were held up by Greece for more than a decade. Athens insisted that its neighbour should be named North Macedonia, rather than Macedonia, to distinguish it from Greek heritage.

That deal was only possible in 2018, once VMRO left office and the Social Democrats took over.

A decade of VMRO rule under strongman premier Nikola Gruevski ended in 2017 with a large-scale wiretapping scandal. Gruevski fled to Hungary where he filed for asylum and where he remains to this day. A North Macedonian court in 2022 sentenced him in absentia to seven years in prison.

Even under its new leadership, VMRO is unlikely to become a constructive force that fosters progress on EU talks, said Carnegie Europe senior fellow Dimitar Bechev. “Mickovski can theoretically make a U-turn if he can sell it to his voters — but that might well end up being wishful thinking.”

If it falls short of an outright majority in the 120-strong parliament, VMRO will probably need a coalition partner.

Much will depend on the results of ethnic Albanian parties. Representing a quarter of the country’s population, these parties can and often do end up being kingmakers. Bechev said they tend to be strongly pro-EU but bicker among themselves, so the question will be which one of them Mickovski invites to form a government.