Who is winning the White House race — Biden or Trump?
The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
Donald Trump retains a lead over Joe Biden in most of the critical swing states with less than four months to go before the presidential election on November 5.
It shows remarkable staying power for Trump, who exited the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 per cent after some of his supporters stormed the US Capitol on January 6. Last month, he became the first ex-president convicted of a felony.
Even so, 48 per cent of American voters would choose Trump for president, according to a recent NYT/Siena poll, versus 42 per cent for Biden. Just 35 per cent of voters approve of Biden and 61 per cent do not.
With less than four months to go, here is where the race stands.
What are the polls saying right now?
Trump and Biden are both polling just above 40 per cent, with Trump currently holding a slender edge of 0.2 percentage points, well within bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. The independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr — who has been excluded from the campaign’s first presidential debate — has been polling at about 10 per cent.
But US presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Rather, they are settled by winner-takes-all contests in almost all 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. Whichever candidate secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.
In four crucial “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — Trump holds single-digit leads. Three others — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are essentially tied.
What are the issues that will decide the election — and who’s leading on them?
The economy is the top priority for US voters — and Trump is winning on that issue.
Overall, 41 per cent of voters trust Trump with the economy, compared with just 37 per cent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.
A CNN poll in April found that 65 per cent of registered voters called the economy “extremely” important to their vote — higher than any other issue — and near levels not seen since October 2008.
Lingering inflation has hurt Biden, and those most pessimistic about the economy are the voters most likely to want change at the White House. Of those who said the economy was “poor”, 41 per cent said a change in political leadership in Washington would enhance their perception of the economy, while 37 per cent said it would improve with lower inflation and 14 per cent said better personal finances.
Other top issues include immigration — where polling suggests voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — preserving abortion rights and lowering healthcare costs. The president is stronger on the last two. His campaign has also put protecting democracy at the centre of his pitch. But a recent Washington Post poll found that more voters in six swing states trusted Trump rather than Biden to handle threats to US democracy.
Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the US was spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polling. This could help Trump.
Though Trump has not said that he would cut funding for either country, the former president has made clear that he expected other countries in Europe to step up their defence spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.
How voters view Biden and Trump as people may be the most important factor.
A majority of voters say Trump, 78, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62 per cent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden was mentally up to the job, compared with 59 per cent who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.
Last month Trump became America’s first ex-president to be convicted of a felony — and yet the impact has been barely visible in polls. About 90 per cent of Republicans still view him favourably, according to the recent NYT/Siena survey, and 68 per cent of registered voters said it made no difference to them.
Trump still faces other criminal indictments, and while a majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in them, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll, it is increasingly unlikely that any of the cases will be completed before the November 5 election.
The Supreme Court is also expected imminently to rule on whether Trump would be immune from prosecution for acts committed while he was president.
Who’s got more money and where is it being spent?
Biden had massively outraised Trump in the money race, according to the more recent quarterly filings, from earlier in the year. And Trump’s coffers had been drained by tens of millions in legal fees.
But Trump has been working hard to close the deficit, with a fundraising spree that included a $50mn gift from a reclusive banking heir. Other billionaire megadonors have pledged to back his campaign too.
Much of this cash will be spent on advertisements. Biden’s campaign and its affiliated political action committees have already bought nearly $240mn in ads for the general election, according to FT’s tracking of AdImpact data, compared with $85mn for Trump.
This money has poured into Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and other battlegrounds, which are in for a deluge of ads as the election draws near. The two campaigns announced rival ad blitzes just ahead of the first presidential debate.
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