Starmer will be centrism’s last chance
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Clement Attlee had the last laugh on those who dismissed him as a dull mediocrity. In later life, the leader of Labour’s great postwar government composed a limerick about himself. “There were few who thought him a starter. There were many who thought themselves smarter. Yet he ended PM, CH and OM, an Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”
Barring the greatest error in the history of opinion polling, Keir Starmer is also about to bestride British politics like the colossus no one thought he was. But while Attlee may have seemed unexciting, the programme of the 1945-51 government more than made up for that. Starmer’s projected landslide will have been built around a strategy of making Labour as small a target as possible. Labour’s chant appears to be “What do we want? Huge change. When do we want it? Over the next 10 years in modest increments.”
Yet with big wins come greater expectations. And beyond the obvious reasons for wanting success, there lies a larger concern. A Starmer government may be British politics’ last chance to halt the populist radical right. A flatlining economy and stagnant real wages have left many voters angry — unsure that traditional politics can bring the better life they demand. Mainstream parties cannot afford to keep failing them.
Labour candidates see the potency on the doorsteps of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and his would-be allies on the Conservative right. One notes: “The populist-right coalition is so clear. You can totally see what Farage or Suella Braverman are trying to do.” Many argue that Brexit exhausted Britain’s appetite for populism and that a realignment of the right which places Faragism under the Conservative banner cannot build a winning coalition. But political choices are never made in a vacuum. Populism is never defeated, only repelled. “Keir is keenly aware of this risk,” said one aide.
Starmer’s honeymoon will be short, assailed from the start by the rightwing media. A large majority will also embolden his own side. One Labour veteran notes: “The real danger is not the hard left but the soft left demanding more spending or other bad ideas.”
He needs to change swiftly from cautious challenger to confident premier. Some of the portents are not hopeful. His public performances remain stilted. Recent years have led to a mood that sees charisma as overrated as a political attribute. Yet politics requires storytellers who can carry voters with them, as the left’s stumbling leaders, from Joe Biden to Olaf Scholz, are discovering.
This is not to diminish Starmer’s achievements. In purging the Corbynite left, and offering a party that reassures voters, he has fulfilled his key constitutional task of giving the UK an alternative it feels able to choose.
But he has joined the roll call of leaders not prepared to confront voters with hard choices. Money is tight. So many parts of the British economy and public services are underperforming that analysts doubt fiscal caution can deliver change on the scale required.
His answer is growth, rightly identified as the core challenge and the key to unlocking the money for public services. Here, Labour has limited its options, boxing itself in on immigration or the EU trade relationship. But Starmer’s commitment to major planning reform to deliver housing and infrastructure could be a game-changer, helping to rebuild the UK’s appeal to foreign investment.
Starmer does not necessarily need to be radical. But he must be decisive and move quickly. Never an instinctive politician, he can be excessively deliberate when making tough calls. But the tone will be set in the first weeks — a fact made harder by the timing, which sees parliament breaking for summer within weeks of the election.
An incoming prime minister must set a narrative that buys time for drawn-out reforms. Some imaginative and surprising appointments would help. He must also recognise that the next election campaign starts on July 5. So he needs to be clear about the tangible improvements, most obviously to the NHS, he needs to deliver within a first term.
His first months will be spent laying foundations and fleshing out plans. But Starmer needs one or two early initiatives that show a team springing into action. Some allies advocate emphasising change with steps to restore integrity in government but his main focus will be on wealth creation.
One early move might be to double down on his housebuilding pledges by scrapping the so-called “hope value” premium on compulsory purchases — an estimate of the land’s higher value once developed — to allow councils to buy land more cheaply. With wider planning reforms to come, this would be a clear demonstration of intent.
Many measures will not come quickly. A spending review takes time; the first Budget will not be until the autumn. But both Starmer and Rachel Reeves need to set the narrative of a rebooted Britain immediately and emphatically.
On July 5, the Labour leader is likely to stand supreme as liberal democracy’s most secure leader. A confident, decisive Starmer would match the moment. Voters need to see normal politics working for them again. He not only carries the dreams of a country demanding change but the hope of all who fear what follows if he fails.
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