Iran hardliners pushed to unite as reformist shakes up campaign

Hardliners in Iran’s presidential race are jostling to become their faction’s unity candidate to counter the surprise reformist contender, as they face pressure from within their own camp for some to quit the race.

A week before voting begins, regime-approved conservatives are campaigning fiercely, including in the holy city of Mashhad, a conservative bastion and the hometown of the two most high-profile hardline candidates.

The possibility of pro-reform Iranians turning out to vote has heightened infighting among the hardline group — made up of social conservatives opposed to a rapprochement with the US — over how to consolidate their own vote share ahead of the election’s first round on June 28.

Mohsen Rezaei, the hardline secretary of the Expediency Council, a state policymaking body, this week said a consensus candidate would eventually be nominated in support of the “revolution front” and “out of respect for what the public favours”.

Choosing a consensus candidate would require some of the five hardliners to drop out. This would echo past presidential campaigns in Iran, but local analysts in Mashhad — home to the holy shrine of a revered Shia imam — said it would be hard to achieve.

Ali Alavi, the editor of Khorasan, a leading conservative newspaper in Mashhad, told the Financial Times it was unlikely that either of the most high-profile hardliners — Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, and Saeed Jalili, the former nuclear negotiator — would quit the race to support the other.

Ghalibaf has called for a compromise on a single candidate.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

The power struggle comes at a critical time. Analysts had believed a conservative would almost certainly form the next government after President Ebrahim Raisi, himself a hardliner, was killed in a helicopter crash last month.

But the surprise move by authorities to approve the candidacy of reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian has revived hopes within that camp of a political comeback.

Turnouts have been low in the past three national elections, including presidential elections in 2021, helping hardliners to hold their grip on power. Votes by the regime’s core ideological supporters have tended to hold steady in Iran, while a higher turnout would likely reflect pro-reform voters rallying behind a reformist candidate.

Some polls have shown Ghalibaf as the frontrunner, while others placed Jalili ahead.

Saeed Sherbaf, Jalili’s campaign manager in Mashhad, said Jalili had no intention of quitting the campaign. “It is wrong to assume that if others pull out, all their supporters will vote for the remaining candidate,” Sherbaf told the FT.

Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a former lawmaker and conservative politician in Mashhad, argued that if any candidate left the race, “it is likely that their votes will go to Pezeshkian”, the opposite of the outcome hardliners are seeking.

Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon and five-term member of parliament, is loyal to the core principles of the Islamic Republic but advocates some reforms to make the system more efficient. He has said he would seek improved relations with the west and would take a softer stance on requiring women to cover their heads.

“Pezeshkian is not seeking structural changes, but his election will create new potential for reform,” Ali Yousefi, professor of sociology at Mashhad’s Ferdowsi University, who is campaigning for Pezeshkian, told the FT. “There is a high capacity for maneuverability and political flexibility within the existing structure.”

Last weekend hundreds of senior university professors and academics gathered at a Pezeshkian campaign event in Mashhad to show support.

“We did not vote last time, and it only led to more hardline dominance,” said Bahman, a medical student, at the campaign rally. “This time around, I am going to vote, hoping we will have more social freedoms.”

Javad Arianmanesh, a conservative former lawmaker from Mashhad, told the FT that “in case of a low turnout, Jalili will have a higher chance. With a turnout of between 40 and 50 per cent, Ghalibaf will be more likely to win. And a participation of above 55 per cent will increase Pezeshkian’s chances.”

Analysts and politicians said the voting would probably go to a second round, with Ghalibaf as the frontrunner facing either Jalili or Pezeshkian.

Jalili represents the most hardline segments of Iran’s political spectrum.

“His non-inclusive approach to politics will widen political polarisation internally, and will constrain Iran’s relations with the world,” said Yousefi, the sociologist.

But those are the very qualities that appeal to his supporters. Fatemeh Ahmadi, a 23-year-old student wearing a chador — the head-to-toe black gown favoured by conservative women — said she would vote for Jalili because of “his tough and uncompromising approach to the west”.

“Others held back the country for years, negotiating a worthless deal,” she said with reference to former president Hassan Rouhani’s 2015 nuclear deal that collapsed three years later.

Ghalibaf is a controversial figure among the hardline camp because he leans towards pragmatism and modernisation, and also because of accusations of corruption against his associates.

If Jalili withdraws from the race, the hardline faction may risk losing the votes of his supporters who lack trust in Ghalibaf’s suitability for the presidency.

However, Majid, a salesperson in Mashhad, said: “As a conservative, I will vote for Ghalibaf because of his long management record and because he is more moderate compared to Jalili.”

The vote comes at a time when economic distress, along with social and political restrictions, have led to public disillusionment.

Mohsen, a shopkeeper, said: “I’m not voting for anyone. Reformist or conservative, what difference will it make? Our lives are on a downward spiral and no one will do anything to improve things,” he said.

Both reformists and hardliners are waiting to see whether voters such as Mohsen will change their minds.

Taraghi, the former lawmaker, said it was “still early to decide which candidate should pull out, if any”. But he added: “The downside to an eventual consensus is that it would create polarisation, pitting reformists against hardliners in a divided society.”