Poll shows Scottish nationalists narrow gap with pro-unionists

Scotland’s independence movement drew comfort from an opinion poll showing it narrowed the “No” camp’s commanding lead ahead of a televised debate between First Minister Alex Salmond and the leader of the pro-union faction, Alistair Darling.

Polling company Ipsos Mori said its latest poll had found a four-point reduction in the pro-union lead ahead of the debate. The nationalists see the TV duel as a major opportunity to boost support for a “Yes” vote, with 43 days to go to the independence referendum.

Tuesday’s keenly-awaited debate marked a milestone in Mr Salmond’s long journey from 1970s activist in the then-fringe Scottish National party to standard-bearer for those hoping to end the union of 1707 between Edinburgh and London.

But the poll for STV, the Scottish broadcaster hosting the debate, suggested Mr Salmond and his fellow nationalists have much ground to make up. The survey found that 40 per cent of voters backed independence with support for the union steady at 54 per cent.

The poll offered ammunition for Yes campaigners’ claims to be gradually winning over undecided voters. A few polls have suggested that the gap between the two sides is smaller, although their methodology has been questioned.

“The Yes campaign will be heartened that it continues to narrow the gap in public opinion,” said Mark Diffley, director of Ipsos Mori Scotland. “The No campaign will take some comfort that support for the union remains unchanged and that it retains a significant lead with the referendum fast approaching.”

Bookmakers said Mr Salmond, an accomplished television performer, was the favourite to “win” Tuesday’s debate against Mr Darling, a former UK chancellor with a drier, less charismatic style than the ebullient Scottish first minister.

In depth

Future of the union

Scotland will decide in a referendum to be held on September 18 2014 whether or not to end the 307-year-old union with England

However, the key test of the debate’s impact on the referendum will be whether either leader can win over the diminishing group of voters who have yet to make up their minds.

People close to Mr Salmond say the debate is a chance to speak directly to voters who have not yet fully engaged with the independence debate, while Mr Darling’s advisers see it as an opportunity to highlight the risks and uncertainties of leaving the UK.

Ahead of Tuesday’s debate, the leaders of the UK’s three main political parties stressed the positive case for the union by signing a joint declaration promising the speedy delivery of new powers to Scotland if it rejects independence.

The Conservatives in June became the last of the UK’s main parties to commit to greater devolution, saying they would give the Scottish parliament control over the bands and rates of income tax.

The Liberal Democrats have also promised greater control over income tax rates, while Labour has been more cautious, saying Scotland should be barred from cutting taxes only for the rich in order to prevent a “race to the bottom” with the rest of the UK.

A spokesperson for Mr Salmond dismissed the pledge as a “Westminster-led rehash of vague promises”. The SNP says Conservative promises of more devolution were broken following a 1979 referendum on the creation of a Scottish assembly.