US ‘feel good’ factor on Kenya’s William Ruto only goes so far

At an American Chamber of Commerce gathering in Nairobi last month, Meg Whitman, former chief executive of eBay and Hewlett-Packard, posed the rhetorical question: “So, how do I feel about Africa and Kenya and our business relationship?”

Her answer was to hit play on the James Brown classic “I Feel Good” as she mustered her inner godfather of soul and shimmied across the stage in front of an amused (and bemused) audience.

The unalloyed enthusiasm of Whitman, US ambassador to Nairobi since 2022, has produced one highly symbolic outcome. Kenya’s president, William Ruto, will on Thursday become the first African leader in 16 years to be received in Washington on a state visit and only the sixth head of state to be so honoured by President Joe Biden. Ruto will visit Atlanta, attend a ceremony on the south lawn of the White House and be toasted at a luncheon hosted by the vice-president and secretary of state.

When Biden appointed Whitman as ambassador, says Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s head of Africa based in Nairobi, she was under instructions to elevate the relationship. Kenya ticked many boxes as Biden cast around for a dependable African partner — relatively democratic, pro-western and open for business.

But Whitman went further, striking up a close relationship with the charismatic Ruto, even taking him to Silicon Valley in an acknowledgment of Nairobi’s status as “Silicon Savannah”, east Africa’s start-up capital. “Whitman is a true believer,” said Mutiga, who credited her with securing the state visit.

For Ruto to be feted in Washington marks quite a turnaround. Less than a decade ago, he was facing prosecution at the International Criminal Court in relation to orchestrated violence that broke out after a disputed election in 2007. Though the case was dropped in 2016, prosecutors accused Ruto of intimidating witnesses.

Ruto’s path from pariah to most-favoured status looks unassailable. In his favour, he was elected, against the odds, in a competitive poll in 2022 in which he was not supported by the incumbent. “The Kenyan people elected him, so who are we to disagree?” said one former US administration official.

Ruto has also benefited as other US allies have faltered. Ethiopia, once a strong security partner, got sucked into a two-year civil war in which 600,000 people died, prompting Washington to end preferential trade terms. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda has become more problematic amid US unease at Rwanda’s sponsorship of M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo. South Africa is a trickier ally following its ambiguity over Ukraine and the joint naval exercises it held with Russia and China last year.

With coups erupting across the Sahel and Bola Tinubu as a less-than-dynamic leader of a diplomatically diminished Nigeria, these are slim pickings for Washington when it comes to extending a state invitation. “Who else is there in Africa?” lamented Peter Pham, distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Ruto, who has shed support at home amid an austerity agenda, has courted Washington. He has presented Kenya, where 90 per cent of the electricity is geothermal, as progressive on climate change. He has argued articulately for international financial reform and has agreed to a US request to deploy Kenyan police in Haiti. He has also nudged Kenya away from Beijing, from which the country has borrowed prodigiously, and moved squarely into the western camp.

“Ruto has played his hand very well,” said Mutiga. “He spotted an opportunity and seized it.”

Not everything has gone his way. House speaker Mike Johnson turned down a request by Democrats for Ruto to address a joint session of Congress. “We don’t mind the White House visit, but there’s no way Ruto is of the calibre of [Ukraine president Volodymyr] Zelenskyy,” said one Republican, adding that Whitman had shown “naïveté” in pushing Ruto so hard.

Nor has Washington’s pledge to take Africa more seriously come entirely to fruition. Biden has not fulfilled a promise to visit the continent. Nor have US businesses exactly flooded Africa with investments. The ambition to break China’s hold on African critical minerals is still nascent while trade with Kenya remains negligible — at roughly $1.5bn it is about one-hundredth of the business the US does with Vietnam.

In a speech in Nairobi, Whitman admitted that, as the head of a big US tech firm, she had devoted “about 1 per cent of the time” to thinking about Africa. Whitman’s sales pitch and Ruto’s savvy may have moved the needle. But not by much.