No, Keir, the real opposition is behind you

It is a remarkable feature of the British election that, two weeks out, the big question is not who will form the new government but who might be the next opposition.

With polls suggesting a huge Labour majority, some posit mischievously that the Conservatives will be so heavily thrashed they will have fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats. On the basis of one opinion poll, Nigel Farage claims that his Reform UK party (current parliamentary representation — one) is the “real opposition now”. In reality, even the most dire polls still show the Tories as the clear second party.

But this is to miss the point. While the Conservatives would still bear the titles and trappings of His Majesty’s Official Opposition, in a landslide Keir Starmer victory, the real opposition will be the Labour party. The largest parliamentary group will be the massed ranks of backbench Labour MPs who will outnumber the ministers and parliamentary aides known as the “payroll vote”. These are the people who will be harrying Starmer the most, which means the parliamentary pressure will be coming from the left not the right.

A very large Labour majority would leave the Conservatives too weak to inflict parliamentary damage. Their first months will be spent fighting over the leadership and direction of their party. Those who remember the Tories’ last transition to opposition will recall how long it took them to adjust to a world in which few hung on their every word.

Unable to affect legislation, their sole role will be to marshal external opposition, assisted by a rightwing press, to scare Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, away from moving too far left on issues such as immigration or tax. This is not a good thing. Democracy needs a viable opposition.

Very quickly then political gravity will shift. Those wishing to move or resist government policy will look to Labour MPs to provide the meaningful opposition. At first this will be limited. Starmer will be at the peak of his power and will try to maintain discipline over his ecstatic party. But things soon change.

I am not talking about the hard-left serial rebels and dispossessed Corbynites who survived the “Starmtrooper” purges. They will be there, of course, but the real challenge when it comes will be from the more numerous ranks of the so-called soft left, notably those around the Tribune Group. For them, the real worry is that Starmer and Reeves might actually have meant their campaign tax and spending pledges. Starmer will also face pressure from Labour figures, like his mayors, outside parliament.

There are two obvious and immediate flashpoints; the Gaza conflict and demands that Labour scrap the two-child cap limit on welfare payments, which could cost a lone parent with three children around £3,455 a year in benefits. Starmer has refused to commit to reversing this, though his tone has softened of late. 

Gaza may be the first fight. Starmer will face calls for earlier recognition of Palestine than his manifesto outlined and a halt to arms sales to Israel. No binding votes can be forced on him but he will not want a large early revolt.

In the long term, the challenges will be around poverty and public spending. Unwinding the two-child cap is costly, around £3.4bn. But Reeves may see the sense in using her first budget to head off this fight, perhaps as part of a broader strategy. Child poverty deeply exercises all Labour figures including loyalists. The new intake, for example, will probably include two think-tank heads close to the party leadership — Torsten Bell and Kirsty McNeill — who have campaigned on the broad issue. Any argument is probably only over the pace of action.

More generally, MPs expect Starmer and Reeves to ditch the around £20bn of proposed Tory savings to which they signed up. MPs may see the case for a dash for growth in the first year but they will resist cuts ahead of borrowing or while measures such as capital gains tax remain untouched.

Other potential flashpoints could come on workers’ rights, public sector pay, or any perceived weakening of climate policy. And the soft left will enjoy allies in the cabinet such as Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband. On welfare reform, Labour MPs have a lower tolerance for tough measures to force people to work. Meanwhile, Labour’s many pro-Europeans want the UK to move more rapidly back into the EU orbit.

Efforts by MPs to push social issues such as decriminalising abortion could stir up culture warriors, though these also provide opportunities to keep backbenchers happy. In many instances it is not that Labour MPs will wish to cause trouble but that they are instinctive campaigners who have come to Westminster to get things done, find themselves under-occupied and grasp that they can exert power over ministers.

A weak opposition also makes it harder to keep your own MPs in line. A populist Conservative party is only a cautionary tale if it looks electable. Meanwhile, any fall in the polls or signs voters are disappointed at the pace of change will provoke demands for more radical policies and higher spending.

In the main this will not happen immediately. Clever party management might see potential ringleaders co-opted into government roles. A wise leader would also reach out to the wider Labour ecosystem of unions and campaign groups. But dissent will come, and faster than leadership thinks. Those looking for real opposition to a Starmer government should probably be looking behind him.

robert.shrimsley@ft.com