Graduate visa route has limited effect on UK skills base, migration adviser chief admits

There is limited “compelling” evidence that people who use the UK’s graduate visa route raise the skills level of the domestic workforce, according to the government’s top migration adviser.

Professor Brian Bell, Migration Advisory Committee chair, said of the Mac’s review into the scheme: “Had we been asked the question by government, ‘do you think the graduate route is necessary . . . to bring skilled work into the UK?’, the answer would probably have been ‘the arguments are less compelling’.”

The comments, made in front of the House of Commons home affairs select committee on Wednesday, will add weight to arguments for curtailing the route ahead of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision on the matter in the coming weeks.

Bell’s remarks follow a report released by the committee on Tuesday that recommended the government retain the graduate visa route, which allows overseas students to spend two years working in the UK after graduation.

The committee, which advises the government on migration policy, warned that cutting overseas student numbers would cause universities “substantial financial difficulty” and could lead some to “fail”.

The findings came as ministers consider ending the visa programme due to concerns it is being used as a backdoor entry route to the UK.

Bell’s intervention will be taken as vindication by former migration minister Robert Jenrick and former health minister Neil O’Brien, who have criticised the Mac report, arguing it was guided by misleading parameters.

These included not asking the committee to review the government’s goal of attracting 600,000 overseas students per year, and focusing on the extent of abuse in the visa system rather than the social and economic impact of this type of migration. 

Sunak is under growing pressure from the right flank of his party to demonstrate he has a clear plan to reduce net migration, which reached record highs in 2022 and remained significantly up on pre-pandemic levels last year.

The prime minister is expected to announce new curbs on the graduate visa route despite strong opposition from the Mac and cabinet members, including education secretary Gillian Keegan.

Bell said it was “dangerous to pick and choose which objectives” to focus on when assessing the value of the graduate visa route, noting the Mac had looked at goals set out in the UK’s national education strategy, including the target to draw 600,000 overseas students annually.

He also noted that it was more relevant to look at graduates’ earnings after they had been on the route for a year, rather than their first few months. 

The Mac chair said there was evidence that a larger proportion of international graduates earn in the top salary bracket of £2,500 per month compared to domestic students after their first year post-graduation, suggesting the route had a “small effect” on the skills base of the UK.

Madeleine Sumption, a member of the Mac, said the evidence suggested the effects of the scheme on GDP were “very small”.

“The graduate route has been much more successful at attracting students to universities than it has been at attracting people with good labour market characteristics,” she said on Wednesday.

“If the only objective [of the scheme] is contributing to the labour market then it’s not an economic necessity,” she added. “The objective that is being fulfilled is the one about attracting students to universities.” 

Letter in response to this report:
UK plc must address failure to invest in training / From Rebecca Pidgeon, London SW1A, UK