Can the Gaza conflict be contained?

This is an audio transcript of the Rachman Review podcast episode: ‘Can the Gaza conflict be contained?’

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Gideon Rachman
Hello and welcome to the Rachman Review. I’m Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times. This week’s podcast is inevitably about the Middle East and the conflict in Gaza. My guest is Baroness Catherine Ashton, who served as high representative for the European Union on foreign affairs and security policy from 2009-14. That was also a period of great turmoil in the Middle East following the Arab Spring, and Cathy Ashton was closely involved in high-level diplomacy with Iran, Egypt and others. She also visited Gaza many times. So with Gaza in flames, what are the risks of a wider conflict in the Middle East?

Joe Biden in clip
The Department of Defense has moved the USS Gerald R Ford carrier striker to the eastern Mediterranean and bolstered our fighter aircraft presence. And we stand ready to move in additional assets as needed. Let me say again to any country, any organisation, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: don’t. Don’t.

Gideon Rachman
That was President Joe Biden warning other countries and armed groups in the Middle East not to take advantage of the current turmoil. Shortly afterwards, Biden announced that he was travelling to Israel. But just before the US president arrived there, further tragedy struck with an explosion at the Gaza hospital that the local authorities say killed hundreds of people. Israel was immediately accused of bombing the hospital. The Israelis, for their part, said the tragedy was caused by a missile fired by Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian Islamist group.

I spoke to Catherine Ashton the day before Biden arrived in the Middle East and a few hours before the hospital tragedy. But the fear that something like that was about to happen was already shaping all western diplomacy to the region. When I’d been in Brussels the previous weekend, I found opinion within the EU very divided about a trip that the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had just made to Israel. Cathy Ashton was once the face of EU policy, so I began by asking her about divided opinions within Europe.

Catherine Ashton
I think the breadth of opinions got wider in the years since I left. You know, we had a pretty solid set of conclusions, as we call them, where the foreign ministers come together and agree a common position, council conclusions that were very straightforward and from my position, easy to implement and follow that we wanted to see a two-state solution, we supported refugees and so on. So it feels that it has got more fragmented and I think that may partly be the nature of problems that don’t get solved, don’t get easier. And it may also be that the politics of Europe is not as consistent as we thought it was.

What they’ll be doing a lot of work on now, and we already see this, is trying to pull out back together and trying to get to a position that makes sense, partly because officials can’t go out and do the work unless they know what the position is. That’s certainly true for the high representative and partly because you want to be able to contribute to trying to find ways to help the situation. We used to say in the EU that Europe was a payer, not a player when it came to the Middle East. And the work that I did — it was especially with Secretary John Kerry when he was secretary of state — was to try and move that to being much more about what Europe could do that was unique to Europe economically for sure, but also politically in supporting any works that the Americans inevitably were leading on, on trying to support a two-state solution that would make sense, make sense for the security of Israel, because that’s got to be fundamental to this, but would provide real opportunities economically and in terms of living side by side in some formal way with the Palestinians.

Gideon Rachman
It was interesting. So I was just in Brussels a few days ago and coincided with Commission President von der Leyen’s visit to Israel. And there were people in Brussels who were not happy that she had done that. They felt that she’d got too close to the Israeli government and a) she didn’t have the mandate to do this, but also she was making the EU potentially complicit in whatever the Israelis were about to do. How did you feel watching it from a distance?

Catherine Ashton
It was interesting because I think you’re right, there are two different things going on. One is that even though we appoint or elect people into these positions, there is always a sense, especially from member states or the parliament, that they only act within the framework that’s given to them. So woe betide if you act outside it. And so a feeling that she had overstepped the mandate. And then, as you rightly point out, of people feeling, well, has she gone in saying this is one position, ie, pro-Israel and not taking into account the other?

I thought that she simply acted to go to a country and say, this is a terrible tragedy and I want to make the point that we understand how awful it is and stand with you. And this is the problem, I think, with whenever you talk about the Middle East or the Middle East peace process, as we used to talk about, is that you somehow can’t find ways to be both supportive of the Palestinian people and supportive of the state of Israel. And I think one thing that I hope will come out of Europe’s thinking about this is how to do this better so that Israel can feel the strength of Europe’s support, especially right now. But that is not to say there’s not more to be done for the Palestinian people.

Gideon Rachman
You must be getting, I guess, flashbacks when you see like a Tony Blinken going to seven different countries in five days and the Europeans also going in and out. You did a lot of this kind of shuttle diplomacy around the Middle East. I mean, are you sort of scrambling to put things together? What are you doing, gathering impressions, trying to form initiatives? And how much at all do you feel in control of events?

Catherine Ashton
What he’ll be trying to do, especially because I think the secretary of state, it’s a bigger responsibility by far, is gathering opinion because he needs to know what people stand. It may seem obvious to us what people ought to be, but you need to really understand what they think. Intelligence on the ground, because however much you might follow an issue, you’re not living in the region, you’re not contemplating this every day. It’s important to do that, and most of all, to try and gather as far as you possibly can a common position that supports what you’re trying to do, but also takes into account what others think. It’s really difficult and it’s really important to do it.

Gideon Rachman
A lot of focus now on Iran, and you’re one of the few western diplomats who spend a lot of time talking to the Iranians. How do you think Iran will be seeing it?

Catherine Ashton
Well, Iran has been the most vocal in terms of support for Hamas. There is a lot of assumption that at least the training, possibly some of the equipment, could well have come from Iran. Investigations will prove one way or the other. And there’s a lot of concern, of course, in the region that Iran might see this as an opportunity to try and dominate the agenda with all that that could mean in terms of the politics of the situation, but also potentially any spillover with Hizbollah in Lebanon, which would in a sense force Israelis to have to think about fighting on two fronts at the same time.

Gideon Rachman
What sense did you get though of the Iranian mentality? I mean, would they be prepared to take a gamble that might see them directly in conflict with Israel?

Catherine Ashton
I think it’s hard to imagine that they wouldn’t see that that would bring other forces to bear upon them.

Gideon Rachman
As in the US?

Catherine Ashton
As in the US in particular. And there are two things going on, I think, with Iran that are of interest at the moment. The first is they have restored their diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and they’re trying to develop relations in the region. Well, it gets more complicated if they’re seen to be such a strong actor. And I think secondly, we still have to remember that there’s a level of activity, however low-level it is, concerning the original nuclear deal that Iran is still hopeful, I think, of getting some of the sanctions removed and been in some kinds of discussion with the international community; not to great effect, but nonetheless it’s there and it has the potential to sort of bubble up. And of course, all of that goes on hold. Now arguably, it goes on hold because the American elections are coming. Not much you can do about Iran or even think about it, not much Iran would be interested in talking to America when it doesn’t know who will be president next year. But nonetheless, these are factors in the conversation that will be going on inside Iran.

Gideon Rachman
But when Biden says in the statement to outside actors, if you’re thinking interfering, don’t, and when he dispatches one aircraft carrier — now, I think a second — to the region, he’s thinking primarily about Iran, yeah?

Catherine Ashton
He certainly is. And he’s making a very strong statement for the avoidance of doubt, if you like. We’re not gonna wait for subtle messages. We’re going to show you that we are very, very clear in our messaging: don’t.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah. And I must say, when I was talking to contacts in Washington, their assumption seemed to be that Iran didn’t want to come in, but that events could spiral out of control in a way that then might lead to a wider war that actually neither country started out from wanting. I mean, how would that dynamic work? I mean, you’ve seen the Middle East, the way things can spiral, but what kind of concerns would there be?

Catherine Ashton
History is littered with things that got out of control, that we start off with one objective. It’s often a very straightforward objective and it gets out of hand and it gets out of hand because of the forces come in. So that’s a lesson we already know and should be clear is something we need to think about. In this particular context, there’s a lot of concern about what will happen when Israel moves into Gaza, that the possibility of there being many casualties would bring in a sense in the region that this was unacceptable and that could spill into people perhaps feeling that they want to take some level of action. It’s all very vague and nebulous because we’re not quite sure what would happen where.

Gideon Rachman
But you’re saying basically moods can radicalise. So Iran might start by saying to themselves, well, we’re not going to go there. But as casualties mount, as the pictures get worse, maybe Hizbollah are unleashed or something like that.

Catherine Ashton
Or Syria. We think about the West Bank, which hasn’t much come up in conversations, but is, of course, a place with lots of Palestinians, many of whom have friends or relatives who are in Gaza. And they will be very mindful of what’s going on and very mindful that they don’t want to see this violence escalate for their own people. So that can spill over in other ways. So there’s lots of possibilities of how this could develop. And I think that’s why the president has decided that he needs to be in Israel because he wants to send the messages and also, of course, to directly give his condolences to the people of Israel who’ve suffered this terrible, terrible tragedy and slaughter.

Gideon Rachman
And when Biden goes there, when Blinken goes there, when indeed when your successors at the EU — whether it’s Borrell or the president of the commission; von der Leyen’s already been there — and they talk to the Israelis, do you think that they, in any sense try to talk them out of some of the things they’re considering? Or do you think, say, for example, a ground invasion probably is now baked in?

Catherine Ashton
It’s very difficult with a country that suffered in this way to think that it’s appropriate to go in and tell them what they shouldn’t do. Israel has to decide for itself how it’s going to handle this. And it seems to me that at the least they will want to do is to dismantle the infrastructure that is Hamas and to make sure it cannot happen again. That’s the only thing it can say to people who have lost family and friends, but also to a nation that is totally traumatised by the fact that this country that has relied so much on its capacity for security, has a strong military, was unable to stop this and unable to support people for some hours. That’s a very challenging situation for any government and especially for the Netanyahu government, because they have already been in a situation with many people in Israel of being unpopular for the measures that they were taking.

So this is a really challenging time. I don’t think, therefore, that it’s about saying you shouldn’t do this, you shouldn’t do that. What I do think is that people will be very conscious of reminding Israel. It doesn’t need to be said again, because it’s been said by many leaders already, international law applies. You want to avoid casualties of innocent people. And there are millions, 2.2mn people in Gaza, most of whom, the vast majority of whom are totally innocent of this.

Gideon Rachman
There’s been some rhetoric from the Israelis, however, that challenges that notion, doesn’t it? And I think Isaac Herzog, the president of Israel, said, well, Hamas wouldn’t be there without some kind of level of support. Why didn’t they have a coup against them? That kind of language does seem to be preparing for the Israelis to say, well, you know, we don’t actually care that much about civilian casualties.

Catherine Ashton
Well, you can argue there’s lots of different ways. We know that there have not been elections since 2006 so most of the young people who’ve grown into adults didn’t vote at all for Hamas. We know that if you have a place that’s 25 miles, 2.2mn people, they can’t get out. Life is incredibly difficult, very challenging. It’s not so easy to start thinking, oh, well, we’ll organise some political parties and we’ll do all the things that you need to do because politics and elections are all about infrastructure, all about all the things that you need to have. And that’s not easy inside Gaza. I’m not making excuses. You know, there are circumstances when it’s arguable that perhaps Hamas should have been removed from whatever kind of power we call it. But we know from events across the world that it is not so easy to dislodge people who’ve taken control.

Gideon Rachman
Sure. Belarus, Russia, wherever. You know Gaza, you went there I think many times. Everybody is very concerned about the humanitarian situation, but just the sheer density of population. Just tell a population that’s already packed into a very tight area that they’ve essentially got to move everybody into half that territory. I mean, can you imagine how that might work?

Catherine Ashton
I think it’s really difficult. I mean, for some people, they’ve got friends, relatives they can move. But for a lot of people, they can’t. They have nowhere to go. There aren’t the houses to house them. There are no facilities for them. Remember, we’ve got a situation where food and water is not available, where people don’t have power, they don’t have petrol, they can’t move so easily. And of course, you have a lot of people who are, one way or another not able to move — either in hospital, disabled, old or very young. And that adds to the problems of trying to move people around. And if you listen to the UN and the UNRWA people who are there, who run the schools, I mean, they’ve got tens of thousands of people sheltering in their schools. Impossible to think how they would be able to move them in that way. Now what Israel is saying is we’re trying to get people out of the way. So they are actually making that point. But this is very difficult to imagine how it can be done the way that they’ve proposed.

Gideon Rachman
Are you scared that, I mean, we’re already seeing pretty much a humanitarian disaster, but that we could get to the point where, you know, people are starving, people don’t have enough to drink. And at that point, doesn’t the west have to move to something, even despite the trauma that Israel has gone through, which is putting a bit more pressure on them?

Catherine Ashton
I think there’s quite a lot of pressure at the moment to find ways to get basic food and water into Gaza. And that’s especially coming on Egypt and the opening of Rafah, which is the gate, if you like, between Egypt and Gaza.

Gideon Rachman
And Egypt’s another country that, you know, one, I mean, you write very interestingly about it in your book, about that period where the current leader, Sisi, stages a coup, overthrows Morsi and so on. How do you think they will be thinking about this? Did they have their own security concerns about Gaza that’s making them reluctant to open the crossing, or is it that they don’t want to be complicit in another Nakba and another dispossession of the Palestinian people where they’re moved?

Catherine Ashton
Well, you have to sort of go back to that period when we had the Muslim Brotherhood in power. And the group that removed him was an extraordinary group of politicians from practically every other part of life, including, I think, the Coptic pope or the grand imam was supportive of what happened. It was a move to try and stop what people really feared, which was civil war in Egypt. And from that, Sisi became president. So he carries that history in terms of his thinking. He’s collaborated very closely with Israel. He worries about terrorism within his own country. He’ll be deeply reluctant to find himself with thousands and thousands of effectively refugees from Gaza because he believes, I’m sure, that they will stay in Egypt. He believes that he will be responsible for them. And this is a country that has huge problems economically itself, doesn’t want to import anything that feels like a lack of security. Difficult.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah. And, of course, the Muslim Brotherhood were his sworn enemies inside Egypt. And there are connections between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, yeah?

Catherine Ashton
That’s right. And Egypt will not want to risk creating the circumstances where people, in a sense, play back what happened when Mohamed Morsi was removed. People will remember that it wasn’t that he stood down, it was that he was literally taken out of the presidential palace and taken away. And that’s something that I think they will want to be clear in avoiding if they possibly can. Having said that, one of the things that I think is a real shame is that, of course, Cairo is the home of the Arab League. It is a country that has always played a much bigger role in the region. And I sort of am a bit disappointed that Egypt is not stepping up in a way that I think it could and should to try and play some level of mediation.

Gideon Rachman
Yes, it’s very defensive their role, isn’t it? The kind of thinking, if that’s the word, seems to move to the Gulf, really, that if you want to try to get a sort of Arab voice, you go to the UAE, Qatar even, and to Riyadh.

Catherine Ashton
You do. But also the person who’s been moving around a lot of the present time is the King of Jordan, who is, of course, himself extremely aware of what can happen, especially in the West Bank, has a huge number of Palestinians within Jordan and will undoubtedly be the person that the president consults when he’s in the region. So there is already the classic Jordanian diplomacy going on, born of a real understanding of all of the issues. But you’re right, the Gulf is, of course, where people will also focus both in Gaza, because you have Hamas based there, if you like, their office is there. And, of course, Saudi Arabia.

Gideon Rachman
Before we get to that, just the last thought on Egypt. I mean, the economy is in a very, very fragile state. The rising food prices have been a disaster for them. And you could argue, well, that makes it all the more the case that they won’t take refugees. On the other hand, I mean, if the west were to offer a huge aid package to Egypt, do you think that might help sway things?

Catherine Ashton
I’m not sure, because I think for President Sisi, from my discussions with him, which were a while ago, he was extraordinarily concerned about young people in Egypt and the opportunities and especially about the security of Egypt, he worried a great deal. And everything that we’ve seen in terms of how he’s approached his role has been to continue to put that front and centre. So I’m not sure that simply saying, well, here’s a big aid package, which would have to of course be in part used for the refugees who are coming in, is going to persuade him that that’s worth the risk as he would see it. And this is the problem when you have lots and lots of people with nowhere to go, you know, you end up having to sit back and reflect that in the longer term, we still have to go back to what we’ve always known is the right solution.

Gideon Rachman
Hmm. Qatar and then let’s get to that right solution. Very interesting role. I mean, the fact that they hosted the Taliban and then the talks over Afghanistan all took place there, and now Hamas. But you’d think Hamas was sort of persona non grata in the west now, which I guess it is, but the Qataris are not told to kick Hamas out because somebody has to have a channel to them. Is that right?

Catherine Ashton
I’m not sure that’s the reason. But certainly Qatar has always played a role in Gaza. You know, it was not unusual when I was in Gaza that there would be visitors coming in from Qatar. That was not uncommon. They saw themselves as having direct links and it was sort of in the broader role of being a country within the Gulf that didn’t just follow the line, but did things differently. So it’s not wholly surprising to me that that would be the country that people would go to. Having said that, the advantage that they do have those relationships is that they’re people that the US and others can talk to and can think about how they might be able to play a role, first of all, in getting the hostages out and secondly, in trying to, in the end, look for a way through this.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah. And you said, you know, in the end, we’re gonna have to come back to the politics of this. And it does seem to me that Israel, as far as I can tell, hasn’t gone much beyond we have to destroy Hamas, but they don’t yet have a vision for who else is gonna run the Gaza Strip. They asked you for advice, they might. What would you say?

Catherine Ashton
I think it’s not surprising that all that they’re thinking about now is the people that have been taken hostage and how to make sure this could not happen again. You know, for the reasons we’ve already discussed about, this is a country in shock and a country that suddenly does not feel as secure. And for everybody living there, that’s a terrible thing. So the immediate is the immediate.

Ultimately, though, if the best security that you can think of doesn’t keep you completely safe, then other solutions have to be found. And we know that there are underlying questions that have been around for decades about how do you resolve for the innocent population a way of living that gives them the sort of lives that we would want for ourselves, that they want for themselves. If you go to Gaza and you talk to the children in the schools, as I would do on every visit, they all wanted to be, the boys wanted to be footballers a lot and the girls and boys wanted to be astronauts. You know, they want the kind of lives that they read about in the comic books and storybooks that they have.

So there is a question in the longer term: how do you move towards a situation where you can have people living in the same region in greater security because this is not something that they would tolerate in their own lives. They would not want to be part of anything other than living a peaceful life, which is what most people want. That’s got to be still on the agenda somewhere. I’ve always believed you have to think much longer term and you have to think about how do you resolve problems really down the track, which seem impossible to contemplate right now. And I completely understand that. But some time, we’re gonna have to get back to that.

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Gideon Rachman
That was Baroness Catherine Ashton ending this edition of the Rachman Review. And if you enjoyed that conversation, I’d warmly recommend her recent memoir called And Then What? That’s it for this week so please join me again next week for another edition of the Rachman Review.