Scottish Tories buoyant as Labour vote collapses

The Conservative party is not on the side of Scottish voters, does not care about Scotland and is irrelevant in elections north of the border. That, at least, was the conclusion of a leading polling exercise in late 2013.

Now, in a rapid two-year reversal of fortune, the Tories are challenging Labour for second place in the polls and on track for their best-ever result in elections to the Scottish parliament later this year, which would make them the official opposition. A recent YouGov poll put the two parties neck and neck.

“Overtaking Labour has become a credible possible outcome,” said one Tory aide. “If you’d suggested that was possible this time last year, people would have laughed in your face.”

How did this apparent reversal of fortune come about?

“The only reason the Tory party is doing so well is because Labour are doing so badly,” said John Curtice, politics professor at the University of Strathclyde.

“This is the first time since 1997 that there’s been any evidence of an increase in Tory support at all,” added Mr Curtice. “Don’t exaggerate the size of the rise.”

Overtaking Labour has become a credible possible outcome. If you’d suggested that was possible this time last year, people would have laughed in your face

Conservative support is up about 3 percentage points in the polls since last year’s general election. More striking is Labour’s fall: until the independence referendum in 2014 they were polling in the early 30s, but that fell sharply and they have since languished at about 20 per cent.

“Everyone is wondering what is rock bottom for the Labour party,” said Mr Curtice. “It’s dire.”

One Labour insider said morale had been fragile since it lost 40 of its 41 Scottish Westminster seats in May. “It is tough, really tough, it’s not clear how we get back on our feet again,” he said.

Senior party figures are resigned to losing all 15 of its “constituency” seats in Holyrood — although it should still pick up more than 20 MSPs through the “regional” list under Scotland’s electoral system.

Nearly a third of people who voted Labour in the 2010 general election were in favour of independence and many have since shifted to the SNP.

Since last summer Labour has lost even more voters, half of which have switched to the Conservatives, said Prof Curtice.

The figurehead — and, some say, sole reason — for this is Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson. A gay former journalist with nearly 34,000 Twitter followers and a reputation for being outspoken, she is the opposite of the party’s longstanding tweedy image.

She became leader in late 2011 and set about modernising the party — ditching half its election candidates and sticking blue rosettes on to younger, more moderate recruits.

“We did quite a lot of unglamorous backroom stuff first,” said one senior Scottish Tory. “The party had a good long look at itself. Ruth was given a lot of autonomy.”

The tactic may be working: “Ruth Davidson’s [personal polling] numbers are very good,” said Mr Curtice. “She has managed to cross the party divide and people are at least vaguely listening.”

That is mostly because Ms Davidson has managed to do what for years many Scottish Tories thought was impossible: to decouple their image from the Westminster party. “She has twigged that if she disagrees with the prime minister, then it’s in her interests to say so,” said Mr Curtice.

Ms Davidson has criticised her own leadership over tax credit cuts and warned Mr Cameron not to block a second Scottish independence referendum, for example.

Yet John McTernan, a Labour commentator, still insists there is “no chance” of the Tories coming second in May in Scotland.

“The problem the Tories have is they have one of the most popular opposition leaders in Scotland; she is charismatic, attractive, interesting,” he said. “But she still uses up a lot of her personal political capital defending the Conservative government in London.”

Ms Davidson’s success has seen her talked about as a future star in Westminster. Her revamp of the Scottish party chimes well with David Cameron’s focus on compassionate Conservatism and social justice.

“David Cameron could use her a lot better in a national government role. She would be better than a lot of the people currently sat around his cabinet table,” Mr McTernan said.