Why an eastern push could speed up the EU top jobs debate

Good morning. Yesterday in Bari, the G7 agreed a plan to loan $50bn to Ukraine, shoring up Kyiv’s coffers — and western unity — despite major domestic troubles plaguing many of its leaders.

Today, we report on a largely settled EU top jobs debate, and our Dublin correspondent investigates Ireland’s population surge.

From tomorrow, you’ll receive a special edition of Europe Express Weekend focusing on the turmoil in France ahead of the parliamentary elections, written by a range of FT reporters in both English and French. The regular edition will return after the July vote.

Have a great weekend.

Balance

A renewed push from the EU’s eastern and northern states for a top job in the next EU legislature has helped build consensus on the best candidates ahead of a leaders’ dinner on Monday.

Context: Gossip, speculation and pure make-believe have been rife over who will assume the roles of European Commission president, European Council president and EU foreign policy chief. Following the European elections, it is now crunch time for EU leaders. The commission and foreign policy jobs also need the parliament’s approval.

The 27 leaders gather in Brussels on Monday for talks, although they are not expected to officially propose their candidates before a formal summit on June 27.

There is strong support for splitting the top positions between the three biggest political groups, giving the commission presidency to the centre-right European People’s party (EPP), the council to the Socialists and Democrats, and the top diplomat to liberal Renew.

A second five-year term for the EPP’s Ursula von der Leyen at the commission is all but settled. But who takes the other roles?

Multiple EU ambassadors said the most realistic combination was António Costa, Portugal’s former socialist premier, at the council, and Estonia’s Liberal Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as chief diplomat. That would also maintain geographical balance, something that central European states have demanded.

Some said that amid geopolitical instability and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, member states should quickly settle on those choices, rather than continue haggling endlessly.

A French government official said Paris favoured a swift decision, despite the election campaign there: “We want stability. We want a strong Europe.”

Alternatives, such as Belgian caretaker Prime Minister Alexander De Croo as high representative, or Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen as council president, come with caveats.

Liberal De Croo would have to be nominated by the next Belgian government, which is unlikely given he will probably join the opposition, while Frederiksen has only lukewarm support among fellow leaders.

But there could yet be complications, especially if the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) swells its ranks by absorbing more national parties, overtakes Renew and starts demanding a key role.

If there’s a lesson from the 2019 elections, it’s that a last-minute rebellion could tear up any done deal.

Chart du jour: Expensive gifts

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Markets fear that far-right Rassemblement National’s economic plans, such as fuel tax cuts, will only add to France’s yawning budget gap. Marine Le Pen’s party is realising those pledges may be difficult to enact if it takes power.

Irish boom

As Ireland’s governing coalition struggles to control immigration and boost housing, new data suggests the population may be growing more than previously thought — potentially complicating things, writes Jude Webber.

Context: Governing parties held their ground in local elections last Friday, while opposition party Sinn Féin slumped. But a general election is looming by March 2025, and the coalition is struggling to meet the nation’s housing and infrastructure needs.

Ireland’s population hit 5.3mn in April last year, according to the Central Statistics Office, capping a decade in which Ireland saw the EU’s third-fastest population growth.

But EU data indicates the population may have grown even faster. According to the European Commission’s annual macroeconomic database, Ireland’s population on January 1 reached 5.43mn, up from 5.35mn a year previously and up 3.5 per cent compared with 2022 — much higher than the 1.9 per cent growth rate estimated by the CSO. The commission’s data is based on national and OECD statistics.

Migration may help explain the increase, as Ireland has taken in nearly 100,000 Ukrainian refugees (though up to 20,000 may have left). It has logged 7,188 asylum claims so far this year, compared with a total of 13,277 for 2023, when it also granted more than 30,000 work permits to non-EU nationals. But the data discrepancies cannot be fully explained.

One thing is clear, however: Ireland’s battle to build homes and provide other services for its growing population will intensify.

And that “probably hurts [the government parties’] chances going into next year”, independent economist David Higgins said.

What to watch today

1. Second day of G7 leaders’ summit in Bari, Italy.

2. EU justice ministers meet in Brussels.

Now read these

• Free Evan: Detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich will be tried on espionage charges in Russia, as the US attempts to secure his release.

• Crisis mode: Is Germany’s so-called traffic light coalition between Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals (once again) on the brink of collapse?

• Kick-off: Football is rarely just football, writes Simon Kuper. The men’s European Championship begins amid political turmoil that could invade the pitch.