Leo Varadkar suggests Ireland faces snap election next month

Ireland is on track for a snap February election after Leo Varadkar, prime minister, said “circumstances have changed” his preference to wait until May to go the country.

Mr Varadkar’s minority government is underpinned by a parliamentary voting pact with the largest opposition party, which was prolonged in 2018 due to Brexit risks to Ireland. The arrangement has been teetering since Boris Johnson’s UK election victory last month, which put Britain on course to leave the EU at the end of January with an agreed exit deal.

“It has been my view for a long time now that the right time [for an election] would be the summer of 2020,” Mr Varadkar told national radio on Sunday.

“But I have to acknowledge that circumstances have changed. We have a deal on Brexit and in many ways that was the big job of this government.”

Allies of Mr Varadkar said his centre-right Fine Gael has been put on notice to fight an election next month, not least because the party will struggle to win a February 5 vote of confidence in Simon Harris, the health minister, over hospital overcrowding. Defeat would erode Mr Varadkar’s authority.

“A taoiseach that cannot appoint their own cabinet is a taoiseach in name only,” Mr Varadkar said.

Mr Varadkar said he had decided the election date but declined to reveal it because of protocol issues and “unfinished” business in relation to European and Anglo-Irish affairs. “I will end any uncertainty as soon as I can,” he said.

One potential point to dissolve parliament would be after a visit by Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, who is due in Dublin on Wednesday.

Allies have said February 7 or 14 are the most likely election dates, suggesting a short campaign in which Mr Varadkar, who succeeded Enda Kenny in 2017, will pursue a historic third successive election victory for his party.

His chief rival for the office of taoiseach is Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil, the party that has dominated Irish politics for generations. It is seeking a return to power for the first time since a crushing 2011 election defeat at the height of the financial crisis.

Whichever of the parties wins the largest share of the vote will probably need the support of smaller parties and independent members of the Dáil assembly to form a government. 

Election preparations stepped up after a deal in Belfast last week to restore Northern Ireland’s government after three years of paralysis, a priority for the Irish government. 

Mr Varadkar has won plaudits for his stewardship of difficult Brexit talks but faces attacks over domestic policy failings. Although Ireland’s economy is growing strongly after rebounding from the 2008 crash and an international bailout, he has received sharp criticism over a growing housing crisis and persistent health service failings.