What is driving Sinn Féin’s electoral surge in Ireland?

Sinn Féin’s surge to Ireland’s biggest political force delivered a historic breakthrough for the nationalist party after decades on the fringes. Even party leader Mary Lou McDonald was caught off guard: Sinn Féin recorded the highest share of the popular vote but because it did not field enough candidates, it will not hold the biggest number of seats in parliament.

The upset places the two other largest parties — Leo Varadkar’s centre-right Fine Gael and the centrist opposition Fianna Fáil, which is set to have the most seats — in a difficult spot. In close to a century of political domination, they have always ruled out coalition with Sinn Féin because of its leftist policies and its support for the IRA’s violent campaign to force Britain from Northern Ireland before the 1998 Good Friday peace pact.

What is driving Sinn Féin’s vote?

Support for the party has steadily been increasing at successive general elections, from 6 per cent in 2002 to 24.5 per cent on Saturday, by targeting the left-behind of Ireland’s strong economic growth and campaigning on the lack of affordable housing and failings in healthcare.

After nine years of Fine Gael rule, these were Mr Varadkar’s weakest spots: One-third of respondents to exit polls on Saturday for RTÉ and other media said health was the prime issue and 26 per cent cited housing and homelessness. Housing was by far the dominant issue for younger voters — aged 35 or less — 32 per cent of whom voted for Sinn Féin.

The taoiseach’s tough stance on Brexit and his ability to secure a UK withdrawal treaty maintaining open borders between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland failed to pay off. Only 1 per cent of voters said Brexit had been a priority.

Fianna Fáil’s decision to prop up the minority Fine Gael government from opposition since a 2016 parliamentary voting pact, opened them to attacks from Ms McDonald. The arrangement became a liability for Fianna Fáil, which is still blamed by many Irish people for the economic crash a decade ago that led to mass unemployment and emigration.

How different is Sinn Féin from the IRA era?

Ms McDonald took over the Sinn Féin leadership in 2018 from Gerry Adams, who had led the party since 1983 and had been the public face of IRA violence during the Troubles in Northern Ireland.

Mr Adams was a prime architect of the peace strategy that led the IRA to the Good Friday pact and the decommissioning of its weapons in 2005. But the party remained hampered by his association with violence.

Ms McDonald has sought to broaden the party’s traditional working-class base and reach new voters with a generation of party figures untainted by the IRA days.

Sinn Féin insists the IRA’s war is over but has faced criticism over the influence of unelected individuals with links to paramilitary groups. Sinn Féin ministers in Northern Ireland’s government have been accused of seeking approval from “senior republicans” with no official role. Ms McDonald has denied taking instructions from anyone.

Can Sinn Féin now enter government in Dublin?

Mr Varadkar has said a coalition with the nationalist party remained beyond the pale. But Fianna Fáil, which is expected to win the most seats and therefore the chance of putting a government together, will have to answer that question first. Party leader Micheál Martin appeared to leave the door open to a coalition with Sinn Féin on Sunday by not ruling it out. “I’m a democrat” and “respect the decision of the people”, he said.

Sinn Féin’s link with the IRA is not the only problem. The party’s manifesto includes a huge spending rise and tax increases on business and the wealthy, a programme that Fianna Fáil branded “dangerous”. Common ground would be difficult to find, although consensus is growing that the next government will have to boost housebuilding, a key Sinn Féin pledge.

Ms McDonald’s strong showing makes it difficult to shun the country’s largest political force. Sinn Féin has also sought to quell criticism by last month resuming power-sharing with the pro-British Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland. If the election puts the party into power in Dublin, it would then be in government on both sides of the border.

What are the implications for the Irish unification debate?

Sinn Féin campaigned on a referendum on unification of the republic and the north within five years. Ms McDonald will raise that question in any coalition talks, saying during the campaign that it was not an “exotic red line” but a necessity after Brexit.

Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar are reluctant to hold such a referendum, arguing that the top priority must be to work with the power-sharing structures laid down in the Good Friday Agreement.

Mr Varadkar insisted last year that moving towards a vote on Irish unity could make a “bad situation worse” in Northern Ireland’s volatile politics. His government has also pointed out that there is no majority at present for reunification. The Good Friday Agreement states that it is for the Northern Ireland secretary in the UK government to call such a referendum in the UK region if they believe it is the will of the majority.

But the idea of unification has progressed in the shadow of Brexit, which has left nationalists in Northern Ireland who favour reunification feeling adrift after a majority in the region voted into the 2016 referendum to stay in the EU: in the republic, 57 per cent of voters are in favour of referendums on both sides of the border, according a survey conducted on Saturday.