Ed Miliband errs on side of caution over election strategy

Ed Miliband admitted on Wednesday that his failure to mention Britain’s £95bn budget deficit in his conference speech was down to a memory lapse; what he did not say is that he hopes that voters forget about the country’s fiscal problems too.

Mr Miliband’s excuse for not mentioning the deficit was that he delivered his speech without a script and had trouble “remembering every detail”, but the slip may have revealed a bigger truth about an increasingly cautious Labour election strategy.

According to the latest Ipsos Mori polling, the Conservatives have opened up a 25 point lead over Labour on the question of which party is “best on managing the economy”; by far the biggest margin since the 2010 election.

So instead of trying to address that weakness, Mr Miliband used his speech to try change the subject. He focused on Labour’s plan for a new £2.5bn health fund paid for by a familiar cast of City tax avoiders and owners of expensive London homes.

“Health is Labour’s banker – the policy of last resort,” says Anthony Wells, associate director of YouGov. “It’s like the Tories talking about law and order. A lot of what Labour does is about trying to protect their lead, not trying to attract new voters.”

Mr Miliband’s speech is seen by Tory strategists as being almost entirely defensive – about trying to hold on to the roughly 35 per cent of voters who consistently say they will vote Labour at the next election.

But will the strategy work? Just as Mr Miliband forgot to mention the deficit on Tuesday, opinion polls suggest that the issue is no longer in the front of the minds of many voters. That suits the Labour leader perfectly.

A YouGov tracker poll shows how in December 2011 some 85 per cent of people listed the economy as one of the biggest issues facing Britain, a figure that had fallen to 52 per cent by March 2014 as the economy started to recover.

This trend has encouraged senior Labour figures to conclude that while they still need to prove their economic competence by promising to balance the books in the next parliament, a battle with the Tories over the public finances may no longer be the defining feature of the next election.

Mr Miliband’s focus on the National Health Service was a clear attempt to raise the “salience” of health in voters’ minds, building on growing concern about the time it takes to see a GP, queues in emergency departments and a lack of quality care for the elderly.

The latest Ipsos Mori poll is encouraging for Mr Miliband: it shows health catching up with immigration and the economy as the issues seen by voters as most important: the three are now neck and neck.

A lot of what Labour does is about trying to protect their lead, not trying to attract new voters.

Mr Miliband’s failure to mention wider economic issues in his speech was derided by George Osborne as “extraordinary” and business leaders lamented a lack of detail on how he hoped to improve the climate for companies.

“There was no comment on how you generate growth to provide the resources to achieve his ambitions,” said John Cridland, head of the CBI employers’ federation.

By Wednesday morning in Manchester even loyal shadow ministers admitted it was baffling that Mr Miliband devoted so little of his speech to the economy, although none went as far as one shadow minister who said at a late night drinks party: “It was the worst speech I’ve ever heard.”

Mr Wells says it is possible for Labour to win elections even when it is trailing the Tories in “economic competence” polls, especially if voters are no longer fearful about the economy and are turning their attention to other issues.

Tony Blair won in 1997 even though John Major’s Tory party was seen as likely to be a better steward of the economy; Mr Blair’s offer of social renewal won the day with an electorate feeling more relaxed about their jobs and the future.

If the economy continues to drop down the list of voters concerns, Mr Miliband’s gamble in putting the NHS at the top of his party’s agenda could yet prove to be astute in spite of the poor billing his speech received on Wednesday.

But he could be storing up trouble. Britain’s public finances are deteriorating in spite of the recovering economy, raising the possibility that even more austerity will be needed after the general election to balance the government’s books.

François Hollande, French president, offers an salutary example of the risks run by leftwing politicians who fail to confront economic problems in their election campaigns, only to run into the hard wall of reality after polling day.

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Labour’s new policies

NHS: £2.5bn a year “time to care” NHS fund to pay for 36,000 more doctors, nurses midwives and care home workers, funded through a ‘mansion tax’ on homes over £2m and a £150m-a-year levy on tobacco firms. A further £1.1bn is expected from cutting down on tax avoidance by hedge funds and Eurobond traders.

Employment: Minimum wage to be increased to £8 an hour by 2020. Overhaul of employment rights for the self-employed to ensure they have “equal rights” to workers on the payroll.

Apprenticeships: Commitment to equal numbers of school leavers entering apprenticeships as going to university by 2025. Companies that want to bring in workers from outside EU will be required to take on apprentices as will all companies on government contracts.

Business rates: Pledge to cut business rates for small businesses by 1 per cent. Goes further than last year’s pledge to freeze business rates for smaller commercial properties.

Constitutional reform: 16-17 year olds will be allowed to vote in future elections. House of Lords reform with a promise to turn the upper chamber into “senate of the nations and regions”.

Environment: All carbon to be taken out of electricity by 2030 and the Green Investment Bank will be give more powers to borrow.

Housing: House building the “top priority” for capital spending in the next parliament and a commitment to delivering 200,000 homes a year by 2020.

Europe: Strong reiteration of the benefits of staying in a reformed European Union and no mention of a referendum. One of the few Labour policies which is popular with business.