Labour has the SNP where it wants

The Scottish polls aren’t moving. Since Ipsos Mori shocked political observers at the end of October by showing a 29-point lead for the SNP, Labour have looked on course to lose dozens of seats to the Nationalists, perhaps ridding them of a Westminster majority.

This has unsurprisingly been seen as a disaster for Labour, and in the long run it probably is. But in the aftermath of what could be an incredibly tight general election result, Ed Miliband’s party might have managed to manoeuvre itself into a very strong position.

About 10 minutes from the end of last night’s Scottish leaders’ debate, there was a crucial exchange, about which other party each would work with. This is what Nicola Sturgeon said:

The SNP will never ever be part of supporting the Tories into government. I don’t think we want a formal coalition either – but what I have said is we will work with Labour to keep the Tories out. So if there are more Labour and SNP MPs than there are Tory MPs then we would vote in a vote of confidence to stop a Tory government even getting off the ground.

This is not a new statement of policy: Alex Salmond said as much to the New Statesman last month. But what we have now is Nicola Sturgeon looking down the barrel of the camera and reiterating that her party has given up its main negotiating chip.

Before that explicit promise to vote down a Tory government in a vote of confidence, the SNP could plausibly have abstained in such a vote and blamed any failure on Labour.

Their offer to Labour in any deal talks would then have been “Give us more powers/Trident/whatever and we will vote with you to get you into government.” That deal is no longer on offer.

The SNP could also say “Offer us more powers/ Trident etc and we won’t block your legislation.” But both parties have already ruled out a coalition, saying they will deal with each vote on an issue-by-issue basis. So there is not much to be gained by offering the SNP concessions on this point either.

Of course, the SNP could row back on its promise after the election. But given Sturgeon said what she did on camera, that would do untold long-term damage to the reputation of the party.

Labour has realised this. Jim Murphy hinted as much in an interview with the Times when he said:

Bring down another Labour government and Scotland will never forgive them. So, no formal coalition; if the SNP want to vote for our programme, that’s up to them; and if they want to bring down a Labour government, they’ve done it once before.

A Labour strategist said to me today:

The SNP has made a massive strategic error here.

So all that talk from Ruth Davidson about “The SNP shopping list”? Forget it, it’s irrelevant.

In fact, there is an argument that Labour is in an even stronger short-term position because of the SNP rise, because it has damaged not only Labour but also the Lib Dems. Whereas the Lib Dems have said they would join either party in government, that is not the case with the SNP. In effect Labour has secured a few more sure-fire votes to help form a post-2015 government.

Of course there is a more serious long-term issue here, which Davidson hinted at herself when she promised not to enter any deal with a party that wanted to break up the union. Labour cannot wish any success for the SNP because it only brings closer the longer-term possibility of the break-up of the UK.

But for now, with the polls apparently unmoving, Labour is not in as bad a position for 2015 as it might seem.