Why Nelson Peltz is reluctantly backing Donald Trump again

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. Today we’re getting into:

• Billionaire investor Nelson Peltz goes back to Trump

• The president’s swing through the US Mountain West

• Biden’s struggle to hold off Trump in Georgia

After donating to Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign, billionaire activist investor Nelson Peltz washed his hands of the former president over the January 6 2021 US Capitol riot.

But now Peltz is singing a different tune, becoming the latest Trump critic to signal he’ll vote for him again [free to read].

Peltz, founder of $10bn investment firm Trian Partners, told the FT’s Harriet Agnew that he’s come back into Trump’s fold because of rising US immigration and because Joe Biden’s “mental condition is really scary” (even though Peltz and Biden are the same age).

“It will probably be Trump and I’m not happy about that,” Peltz said. On January 7 2021, Peltz apologised for backing Trump, but now he sees the criminal charges against the former president as a “miscarriage” of justice.

Peltz, who is worth an estimated $1.5bn, said he hadn’t decided yet whether to support Trump’s campaign financially, adding that the two haven’t spoken in a while. The pair, however, are neighbours in Palm Beach, Florida, so a chat could come anytime.

“I think you wind up saying, ‘If I care about America, I’ve got to care about Trump because I don’t know what I have with Biden,’” Peltz said.

His comments come after Republican megadonors Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein also said they would return to Trump’s orbit. Citadel co-founder Ken Griffin could join the party, too.

Desperate for cash, Trump will be keen for Peltz’s financial backing. The investor gave more than $300,000 to Republican candidates and groups in 2023, according to Federal Election Commission filings, and more than $600,000 to Republican candidates and conservative causes in 2022. 

Campaign clips

• Trump’s lawyers have said he is unable to obtain a bond to delay the enforcement of a $464mn civil fraud judgment after 30 potential lenders declined. [Free to read]

• Economic advisers to Trump have reportedly presented the former president with a shortlist of contenders to lead the Federal Reserve. (WSJ)

• As the war in Gaza threatens to erode Biden’s electoral base, his rift with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has deepened.

• Trump has reportedly hosted some of the biggest Republican donors at Mar-a-Lago as his campaign seeks to shrink Biden’s cash advantage. (NYT)

• The special counsel in Trump’s Georgia election interference case has stepped down after the presiding judge issued an ultimatum. Elsewhere in Trump’s legal affairs, the former president’s New York “hush money” trial has been delayed.

For more on the US presidential election, listen to this week’s Swamp Notes podcast, where the FT’s Rana Foroohar and Taylor Nicole Rogers discuss why unions may decide the race.

Behind the scenes

Biden is heading to Nevada and Arizona this week as his campaign builds its political operation in the two swing states.

Although the Biden camp has projected confidence that it will score electoral victories in those states, “we don’t take any voter for granted”, a campaign aide said.

Speaking on a phone call with reporters, an aide said the campaign’s strategy was to focus on the threat to US democracy and reproductive rights.

“In both Nevada and Arizona, Trump’s election denialism has become the primary plank of the Republican party platform, putting them at odds with a large number of independent and swing voters,” the aide said.

“Abortion is also likely to be directly on the ballot in both the states, keeping the issue of choice front and centre for voters as Trump brags about overturning Roe [vs Wade],” the aide added.

Biden also plans to remind voters — particularly immigration-conscious ones in Arizona — that Republicans have blocked his bipartisan border security deal.

The way Biden-Harris campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez sees it, Trump’s Maga views “have taken over the Republican party establishment, causing deep divisions among traditional GOP voters and an opening for Democrats”, she wrote in a memo yesterday.

Datapoint

Georgia helped Biden win the 2020 election, and he probably needs to win it again in November to be re-elected. But he is struggling to hold off Trump in the southern state.

There is a tale of two economies in the Peach State: while Atlanta is booming, in other parts of Georgia people are stressed about the high cost of living — and they blame the president.

Overall, prices in Georgia have outpaced earnings during Biden’s term, so even though the economy is booming now, some Georgians are still catching up.

Pay in Clayton County, a suburb of Atlanta, has risen faster than anywhere else in the country in the past year. But Sam Day, an insurance adviser living in the county, told the FT’s Claire Jones that she is in a “really scary spot” trying to save while she is “just struggling to get by day to day”.

Day is the type of voter Biden needs to prioritise to win the election. As we’ve talked about here before, the president is having trouble getting through to the electorate with his economic message.

Viewpoints

• The US still has no industrial policy, writes Rana Foroohar, who also ponders whether steelworkers will be the swing voters in the 2024 election [available for Premium subscribers]. 

• Meanwhile, Alan Beattie writes in the FT’s Trade Secrets newsletter that America’s misguided obsession with swing voters in steel states is alienating key allies. [available for Premium subscribers].

• The election has reduced the US-Latin American relationship to alarmist immigration rhetoric, which will come at a high cost, writes Erika Mouynes.

• Robin Wigglesworth tells us how Goldman Sachs thinks immigrants are boosting US jobs numbers, helping to keep the economy strong.

• Nate Cohn breaks down the decline in the share of Democratic registrations. (NYT)