Chess: generation battle as world title Candidates starts in Toronto 

The eight-player, 14-round Candidates tournament, to decide the 2024 world title challenger, begins in Toronto this week. Thursday’s opening round of the €500,000 event starts at 7.30pm BST and will be viewable on major chess websites. The €250,000 Women’s Candidates is held alongside the open event for the first time.

Who will win? There is a generation battle between the trio of Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura (US) and Ian Nepomniachtchi (Russia) in their thirties, and the under-21 group of Alireza Firouzja (France) and the Indians Praggnanandhaa R and Gukesh D, with the outsiders Vidit Gujrathi (India) and Nijat Abasov (Azerbaijan) in their late twenties.

Caruana and Nakamura, the World Nos 2 and 3, are the rating favourites, while Nepomniachtchi (twice) and Caruana are previous Candidates winners.

The Russian’s case is interesting. His two previous Candidates appearances were marked by high-profile publicity, with references to help from a supercomputer and a team of aides, while this time his preparation has been low-key. In last year’s world title match against Ding Liren, Nepomniachtchi took the lead three times before losing, so he will be highly motivated, all the more so since Ding’s poor 2024 form continued at the Grenke Classic in Karlsruhe last week.

Caruana, the US champion, plays in the rational classical style characteristic of many of the greatest players, though there is a view that he has become liable to choke on big occasions. He failed in the last two Candidates when he was the pre-tournament favourite.

Nakamura’s primary career is as a popular streamer, so that he claims to play with less pressure than most of his rivals. However, in the final round of the 2022 Candidates he missed easy chances to draw with Ding and so qualify for a title match with Nepomniachtchi.

Firouzja is still only 20, but already has a long and successful career at the highest level. His previous Candidates in 2022 was disappointing, as he finished sixth of eight and notoriously played a bullet match in the small hours while dropping out of contention. He has flirted with an alternative career in fashion design, and only qualified for the 2024 Candidates by a controversial route. He remains an outstanding talent, capable of winning the event if on his best form. 

Three Indians in an eight-player field would normally imply a good chance, but for Praggnanandhaa, 18, and Gukesh, 17, the chance probably comes too early. Teenagers have a poor Candidates record. Vidit’s strong finish at the Grand Swiss in the Isle of Man qualified him, but his overall form is variable, while the 100-1 outsider Abasov is the lowest rated by a wide margin.  

It’s an open Candidates. I hesitatingly choose Nepomniachtchi for a third victory, but would not be surprised if Caruana or Firouzja won.

The women’s Candidates looks easier to predict. Aleksandra Goryachkina and Lei Tingjie are the two highest rated players, both have won the Candidates previously, and both went close in their world title matches against the holder Ju Wenjun. My narrow preference is for the Russian.

Puzzle 2566

David Peng vs Pavel Anisimov, Titled Tuesday 2020. White to move and win.

Click here for solution