Why Meloni’s enlarged hard-right group changes the EU power balance

Good morning. Today I unpack what the expansion of Giorgia Meloni’s political group to the European parliament’s third-largest bloc could mean, and Laura hears from a candidate set to be the next EU ombudsman who has first-hand experience of its probes.

Shifting sands

With their large Greek contingent, one might expect Ursula von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s party to grasp the concept of hubris.

But after seeing its attempt to lead a cosy centrist deal on the EU’s next top officials at dinner on Monday roundly backfire as other leaders rejected something cooked up in their absence, the EPP last night sought to crow about adding new members to its parliamentary ranks — only to see its hard-right rival steal the limelight.

Context: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservative and Reformists claimed yesterday that it had grown to 83 members of the European parliament, a number that would replace French President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal Renew group as the chamber’s third-largest and disrupt a centrist triumvirate that has held for 30 years.

Meloni was the most outraged over Monday’s antics, where six leaders from the EPP, Renew and second-placed Socialists and Democrats presented their proposals as a fait accompli. Hence her glee yesterday.

However, the ECR’s newcomers make a formal ruling coalition with centrists extremely unlikely. Meloni’s new allies put the “hard” in hard right. The chair of Romania’s AUR party is banned from Ukraine and Moldova on security grounds, and Bulgarian MEP Ivaylo Valchev campaigned against what he called “homosexual propaganda”.

But on the basis of her larger flock, Meloni yesterday demanded a “role of the highest grade” when EU jobs are doled out. She also said she was “working to organise an alternative front to the left” and called for a “step-change” in legislation.

That could prove a stumbling block for the EPP and von der Leyen herself, who needs the backing of EU leaders as well as a parliamentary majority to secure a second five-year term as European Commission president. While her coalition has a small majority cushion, it’s not bulletproof.

Sticking to form, a senior EPP official last night waved away the ECR’s growth as a trifling matter that did not change the 55 per cent share the three centrist parties hold.

“I don’t want to be arrogant or too aggressive,” the official said. “The ECR [growing] doesn’t change anything.”

That may be a treacherous approach. If Meloni was indignant about not being offered a prominent voice in the top jobs debate on Monday, one assumes the latest developments will have only deepened her sense of injustice, ahead of the next leaders’ summit in a week’s time.

Chart du jour: Lopsided

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Renewable energy generation hit a global high in 2023. But an increase in the use of fossil fuels and energy demand in general pushed greenhouse gas emissions from energy production to record levels, according to a new report.

Poacher turned gamekeeper

In the great post-election reshuffle, people are starting to throw their hats into the ring for positions other than the EU top jobs — such as the EU ombudsman, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: The ombudsman is responsible for addressing maladministration among the EU institutions. Incumbent Emily O’Reilly has launched inquiries into the cash-for-migrants deal between the EU and Tunisia, investigated last year’s Adriana shipwreck that cost hundreds of people’s lives, and lambasted the EU institutions after the Qatargate scandal.

A perhaps unlikely candidate is Jonas Grimheden, fundamental rights officer at Frontex, an agency that has frequently been in the crosshairs of human rights activists, and the ombudsman itself.

“I’ve worked for the European Border and Coast Guard Agency now for a good three years, and I see a lot of problems that are not within their reach . . . but with the EU more widely or the member states,” Grimheden told the FT.

He hopes to attract support from EU lawmakers across the political spectrum, who are set to vote on the question at the end of the year. Other candidates are likely to come forward in the coming weeks, too.

Grimheden says Greece featured prominently in his inquiries. “We have concluded in several cases that there’s a very great likelihood that the Greeks . . . have been involved in fundamental rights violations,” Grimheden said, adding that he had little leverage. “I cannot tell member states to change [their] practices.”

The Swede acknowledged there could be a perception of a conflict of interest if he were to investigate his former employer, but did not see it as a concern.

“I have total independence,” he said. “I would think it’s rather an advantage. I know how the agencies work.”

What to watch today

1. Eurozone finance ministers meet in Luxembourg.

2. EU employment and social affairs ministers meet.

Now read these

• Messy road trip: Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance have just over two weeks to try to avert a political catastrophe in snap elections.

• I’m yelling timber: The US has asked Brussels to delay a ban on products linked to deforestation, saying it poses “critical challenges” to American farmers.

• Nuclear option: Russia is building nuclear power plants around the world, aiming to lock in other countries for decades.