An ominous stand-off in Georgia

Tbilisi in 2024 has disquieting echoes of Kyiv in 2014. In the Ukrainian capital a decade ago, thousands took to the streets after a Russia-leaning president pulled out of signing an integration accord with the EU. Georgia’s capital today is witnessing mass protests against a law, proposed by a government under the sway of a Moscow-linked oligarch, that would clamp down on opposition — and derail the country’s hopes of joining the EU. After protesters and riot police massed on Monday, Georgia’s parliament is set to adopt the law at a final reading as early as Tuesday.

This is no minor disturbance in a faraway land. Georgia was the first ex-Soviet republic, in 2003, to mount a pro-democracy “coloured” revolution, and to feel the wrath of Vladimir Putin through an invasion five years later. Russian troops have occupied about 20 per cent of Georgian territory ever since. Mikheil Saakashvili, whose early reformist rule later curdled into soft repression and cronyism, was beaten in 2012 elections by an umbrella coalition, Georgian Dream, financed by Bidzina Ivanishvili — who made billions in business in post-Soviet Russia.

Ivanishvili and his party — though he is today only honorary chair — have since steered between mending fences with Moscow and paying lip-service to Georgians’ hopes of joining the EU and Nato, though progress on the reforms required has been scant. The ruling party attempted last year to pass a law forcing non-governmental groups and media that receive foreign funding to register as “organisations serving the interests of a foreign power”, similar to one used to crush civil society in Putin’s Russia. The EU made clear the law was incompatible with Georgia’s membership hopes, and the government backed down after big protests. But just months after the EU granted Georgia candidate status, Georgian Dream now seems bent on passing the law.

This may be partly an attempt to shore up the ruling party’s chances in October elections. But locals speculate that Ivanishvili and loyal elites who benefit from friendly relations with Moscow would prefer EU membership not to happen; Brussels has made the start of accession talks conditional on progress in “de-oligarchisation” and curbing high-level corruption. While polling shows about 80 per cent support for EU membership, the government has also played on the social conservatism of Georgian society especially in rural areas, stressing the EU’s attachment to values such as LGBT rights.

Protesters in the capital are in no mood to back down. Despite the high stakes, violent unrest is in nobody’s interest, especially when Russian troops based in the breakaway South Ossetia region are barely an hour from the Georgian capital. The best hope for the pro-European majority would be to remove Georgian Dream from power at the ballot box in October. But the fragmented opposition lacks leadership and the foreign agents law is a potent tool the authorities can wield.

The situation is a test of EU diplomacy. Given Georgia’s halting progress over the past decade, Brussels must not hesitate to send a clear message to the ruling party and suspend the country’s EU candidacy if the law passes. It should also signal to Georgia’s oligarchic puppet master that he could face sanctions on his wealth if there is a bloody crackdown on protesters.

But the EU also owes it to pro-European Georgians, who have risked their safety to display their fury over what their government is doing, to make clear that the path to membership remains open if the law is removed and there is real progress on reforms. Western countries should also do all they can to maintain links with Georgian civil society and opposition. The country’s post-Soviet history has seen repeated cycles of progress on democracy, followed by partial retreat. Georgians’ hopes must be kept alive that the cycle can be broken.