Letter: Big fall in new arrivals will have a fiscal cost, OBR says

Camilla Cavendish (Opinion, FT.com, June 8) argues that “bringing in keen workers from outside could be an answer to Britain’s unconscionably high level of economic inactivity”, but suggests that most current migrants aren’t coming to work and aren’t “net fiscal contributors”.

While she is right to complain about the lack of detailed data, we do know that, compared to the pre-pandemic peak, employment among the UK born has fallen by a million — entirely offset by a similar increase in workers born outside the EU. New migrants are very likely to be in work. As for their fiscal impact, non-UK nationals earn slightly more than the average Briton, and recent migrants have no access to welfare benefits and are unlikely to be a burden on the NHS, although they are, as she notes, very likely to be working in the NHS or social care.

For these reasons, the Office for Budget Responsibility notes that a large fall in migration would have significant fiscal costs over the medium term, perhaps £14bn annually by 2028-29. Politicians may think lower migration will be politically popular, but the resulting spending cuts or tax increases may be less so.

Jonathan Portes
Professor of Economics and Public Policy, King’s College London, London WC2, UK