India elects, Europeans start voting and old allies remember

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Will it be the treble? The world’s biggest and longest running election — in this bumper year for plebiscites — will reach a conclusion this week as India names its new prime minister. The incumbent Narendra Modi is not only on course to claim a hat-trick, becoming the first leader since Jawaharlal Nehru to serve three consecutive terms, but if poll predictions are confirmed on Tuesday, when the official results are reported, he will have achieved a decisive win.

As my New Delhi-based colleagues John Reed and Jyotsna Singh note in this excellent analysis, the cult of Modi has been central to the success of his Bharatiya Janata party. A clear victory will bolster Modi’s image as one of the world’s strongest leaders at the helm of a fast-growing economy, at a time when its geopolitical clout is growing.

Later this week, EU citizens go to the polls. Some 360mn Europeans in 27 countries are eligible to vote for the European parliament from June 6-9 — here’s a handy EU guide on the process and when each country is voting. Surveys predict more seats for the far right, which will complicate Ursula von der Leyen’s attempt to get re-elected as European Commission president and reduce the EU’s climate ambitions. FT Live is holding a seminar on what the results mean for Europe on June 12 — click here to register for free.

The UK election campaign enters its third week and the focus will be on candidate selection, and perhaps a further backlash by Labour’s left flank over candidates being barred from standing. This Friday is the closing deadline for nominations for the 650 seats being contested, but Labour’s National Executive Committee, the party’s governing body, will formally approve its full list of candidates on Tuesday. Read this for an understanding of the main election battlegrounds, then click on this (rather addictive) FT election result predictor to see what outcome different polling numbers would generate.

The headline economic event of the coming days — amid a busy run of data for the start of the month — will be the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday. Eurozone inflation rose for the first time this year to 2.6 per cent in the year to May, according to figures released last Friday, but the ECB is still expected to cut rates this week. For more insights (if you are a premium subscriber) read our Monetary Policy Radar, a guide to central bank thinking.

Other items of note will be US employment figures and EU GDP data, both on Friday, and earlier in the week the international comparisons offered by country specific purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports.

There is a trickle of corporate results this week, with retail a theme, notably Zara-owner Inditex, which has for so long set the pace in high street fashion. More details of this and the economic data below.

One more thing . . . 

Thursday brings the 80th anniversary of D-Day. US President Joe Biden will be in France with other world leaders for the official commemorations, following that up with a tour of the country, where he will no doubt discuss further support for Ukraine with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.

Biden is mocked for his memory lapses, but there is a collective amnesia problem for modern historic events such as D-Day, given that each year there are fewer veterans left alive to remind us. This makes the BBC’s new series of unheard tapes from the Normandy landings worth a watch over the coming days. Read the FT review here.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And however you plan to spend it, I wish you a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Canada, China, EU, France, India, Italy, Japan, Germany, Russia, UK, US: S&P Global/HSBC/HCOB/au Jibun Bank June manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Turkey: May consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UAE: Iata holds its AGM, including publishing its annual air transport industry report, at the World Air Transport Summit in Dubai

• Results: Hollywood Bowl HY, Sirius Real Estate FY

Tuesday

• Brazil: Q1 GDP figures

• Germany: labour market figures for April

• South Africa: Q1 GDP figures

• South Korea: May CPI inflation rate data

• UK: BRC-KPMG May Retail Sales Monitor

• Results: Bath & Body Works Q1, British American Tobacco interim trading statement, Chemring HY, Ferguson Q3

Wednesday

• UK Takeover Panel deadline for Dar Al-Handasah Consultants Shair and Partners Holdings (Sidara) to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for John Wood Group or announce that it does not intend to make an offer

• Australia: Q1 GDP figures

• Canada: interest rate announcement

• China, EU, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, US: S&P Global/Caixin/HCOB June services PMI data

• Denmark: Constitution Day. Financial markets closed

• South Korea: preliminary Q1 GDP figures

• UK: holdings of international reserves

• Results: B&M European Value Retail FY, Campbell Soup Q3, Dollar Tree Q1, Inditex Q1, Lululemon Athletica Q1, Paragon Banking HY, WHSmith trading statement, Workspace FY

Thursday

• EU, France, Germany Italy, UK: S&P Global June construction PMI data

• EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

• South Korea: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed

• Sweden National Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel data

• Results: Mitie FY

Friday

• China: May trade balance data

• EU: Q1 GDP figures

• Germany: monthly trade figures

• India: interest rate decision

• Russia: interest rate decision

• UK: June public sector finances and Halifax House Price index

• US: May employment figures

• Results: Bellway trading update

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Tuesday

• China: 35th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square

• India: vote counting begins for the country’s general election

Wednesday

• Russia: St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Russian President Vladimir Putin traditionally speaks during the plenary session later in the week

• UK: King Charles III banknotes enter circulation

Thursday

• EU: voting starts for the European parliament, though the Netherlands will be the only member state where ballots will be cast today

• France/UK: 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings celebrated with a series of major commemorations and events either side of the English Channel. Among the attendees will be US President Joe Biden, who will continue a visit across France until Sunday

• US: 90th anniversary of President Franklin D Roosevelt signing the Securities Exchange Act into law, establishing the Securities and Exchange Commission

Friday

• Ireland: local elections

• UK: deadline for candidate nominations for the July 4 general election

Saturday

• Italy: first round of municipal elections

Sunday

• Belgium: parliamentary and regional elections

• EU: European parliamentary elections conclude

• France: French Open men’s singles final

• Germany: municipal elections in various states

• UK: public sector union GMB begins its annual congress in Bournemouth