Where Scotland’s referendum will be decided

I recommend following Election Data; he makes cool maps like this:

It takes data from the latest ICM poll on Scottish independence and applies them to a map of Scotland’s regions. The numbers refer to what share of the electorate say they do not know how they will vote on September 18. There are maps showing the spread of the Yes and No vote on Election Data’s ever-informative Twitter feed.

The highest shares are found in the borders and in Glasgow but as pollsters have tried to explain before, geography isn’t the best way to split the undecided vote. Better to look at a person’s interest in politics (the apathetic being generally more persuadable) and, intriguingly, gender. The latest Ipsos Mori poll showed a 50:50 Yes- No split among men but women voting 2:1 in favour of keeping the union.

True, the campaigns are pouring resources into the central belt but that can mostly be explained by the simple fact that population density is higher there. In a referendum where four out of five Scots say they are likely to vote (compare that with less than two out five in the European elections), this makes even more sense.