Scottish independence: FT analysis shows No vote at 49%

Campaigners for Scottish independence are not making enough progress to win September’s referendum on leaving the UK, according to the FT’s poll of polls.

The data also suggest that some of the “don’t knows”, who account for 13-20 per cent of the electorate, may be moving towards the No camp.

“The crucial headline is that there isn’t any clear evidence of any significant progress for the Yes camp since the back end of March,” said John Curtice, politics professor at Strathclyde university. “They need to make progress soon if they want to stand a chance of victory.”

Support for independence is running at 37 per cent, according to the FT’s poll of polls, which gives a rolling average of the past seven opinion polls, excluding the maximum and minimum values.

This is a percentage point or two higher than it was at the start of the month but several points lower than at the start of April.

The No camp, by contrast, is polling at 49 per cent, its highest level since February, when chancellor George Osborne ruled out Scotland keeping the pound as its currency if it broke away from the UK.

Much of the No camp’s gain appears to be from the “don’t knows”, who analysts had thought would split fairly evenly. Undecided voters accounted for the remaining 13 per cent in the latest poll of polls.

In depth

Future of the union

Scotland will decide in a referendum to be held on September 18 2014 whether or not to end the 307-year-old union with England

Further reading

But analysts say the polls are still inconsistent, making it hard to draw too many conclusions at this point ahead of the September 18 vote.

Odds offered by bookmakers point clearly towards a No vote. Typical odds on voters rejecting independence are 1-6 or 1-7 while a bet on a “yes” vote is offered at 7-2 or 4-1.

“If these polls are right then they’re still in the game,” Prof Curtice said. “If the others are right, it’s looking like a very tough ask.”

Alex Salmond, Scotland’s first minister and leader of the Yes campaign, has to hope that a few outlying polls in his favour are correct, Prof Curtice said.

The latest poll tracked by the FT was by YouGov for the Times on July 1 and suggested support for independence was waning.

It gave the No campaign 54 per cent and the pro-independence lobby just 35 per cent. Nine per cent were undecided.

FT Video

Scotland’s undecided voters

February 2014: In the final video of a three-part series, the FT’s John McDermott concludes his road trip around Scotland. He speaks to the undecided voters, who will be key in determining the outcome of this year’s independence referendum.

The latest YouGov poll found that the No campaign appeared to be winning the economic argument.

Overall 49 per cent of voters thought that an independent Scotland would be worse off, an increase of 4 percentage points since the last survey, and 43 per cent thought that their personal finances would be worse.

The FT poll of polls uses data collated by the UK Polling Report and What Scotland Thinks.

One thing that psephologists agree on is that support for independence is higher among lower-income groups.

In a poll published last month, Ipsos Mori found that the No campaign’s lead among voters in the most deprived areas was less than half that in the most affluent areas.