What’s next after Trump’s guilty verdict?

Well, we didn’t have to wait long. Donald Trump yesterday was found guilty, convicted on all 34 counts in his “hush money” trial.

Welcome to your special edition of US Election Countdown, where we’ll explain what the historic conviction means.

Trump is now the first former US president to become a convicted felon, but it’s yet to be seen whether it will hurt his presidential bid [free to read].

The jury’s decision brings massive political ramifications that threaten to derail his bid for a second term. Up to this point, the Trump campaign hasn’t suffered any real blows from his legal issues — they’ve even galvanised his supporters.

Immediately following the verdict, Trump moved to raise money, calling himself a “political prisoner” on his campaign website. The Republican fundraising platform that the Trump campaign uses crashed soon after. The polls, meanwhile, haven’t moved much since his New York trial began in April, and he remains ahead of Joe Biden nationally and in seven critical swing states.

But this is now a different conversation: voters will be asking themselves if they’d put a convicted felon in the Oval Office.

Biden’s campaign also turned to donors after the verdict, telling supporters on X: “There’s only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box.”

Republican strategist Doug Heye said the verdict would make it harder for Trump to win over voters who are on the fence:

There are a lot of voters who are undecided because they don’t like either one of these guys, and this makes it harder for Trump to appeal to them. It doesn’t mean that he can’t, but it’s harder.

So what next?

Trump’s sentencing is set for July 11. He probably won’t go to jail, since the crimes he was convicted of are low-level felonies, carrying a maximum sentence of four years [free to read]. It’s also to his advantage that he’s an elderly first-time offender with no criminal record. Other punishments include probation or financial penalties.

Trump can appeal, and he almost certainly will. His lawyers will likely file a motion to set aside the verdict, but that would probably be denied. He can then take it to an intermediate New York appellate court and then to the Court of Appeals. This process could take months and is unlikely to end before election day.

To be clear, he can still run for president. There’s nothing in the constitution prohibiting a criminal from holding federal office. But things could get messy if he is placed behind bars and then wins the election. The FT’s US legal correspondent Joe Miller has more in this helpful explainer.

Conviction clips: the latest headlines

• The conviction sparked scenes of pain and joy across the country. As spontaneous celebrations in New York recalled scenes from the day Biden was declared president-elect, mayor Eric Adams said the police force “stands ready” to respond to large-scale protests.

• Bill Ackman agreed with Florida governor Ron DeSantis that the verdict was part of a “political agenda” in a post on X. The hedge fund billionaire is leaning towards backing Trump.

• The jurors in the case can now decide how much to say about the deliberations after weeks of silence. (Washington Post)

Behind the money

When the website that processes donations to Trump’s presidential campaign crashed yesterday, one of his senior advisers took to X to tell supporters to keep trying. And some with deep pockets were happy to give.

Venture capitalist Shaun Maguire, a Sequoia partner, said he donated $300,000 to Trump’s bid, writing on X: “The timing isn’t a coincidence.” 

Former New York representative Lee Zeldin also claimed on X that he had “secured” an $800,000 donation for Trump’s joint fundraising committee. “Never experienced a massive ask that easy,” the Republican wrote.

Verdict viewpoints

• To describe American society as a hung jury would be an understatement, writes Edward Luce. Trump’s true court of appeal is the US electorate.

• The New York Times editorial board called Trump’s conviction “proof that the rule of law binds everyone, even former presidents”.

• A conviction like this would typically be fatal to a presidential candidate’s campaign, “but normally a prosecutor wouldn’t have brought this case,” wrote the Wall Street Journal editorial board.