Ireland’s opposition rules out election due to Brexit turmoil

Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, has received a timely boost after the opposition party that keeps his minority government in power pledged not to force an election because of the turmoil over Brexit.

The move by Fianna Fáil will bolster Mr Varadkar in talks over a “backstop” on the Irish border, one of the most contentious elements of the EU withdrawal agreement that UK prime minister Theresa May is fighting to get through the British parliament.

It underscores the depth of anxiety in Dublin about the threat of damage to the country’s economy and Northern Ireland’s peace settlement from a disorderly no-deal Brexit. Mrs May was forced to cancel emergency talks with Mr Varadkar planned for Wednesday as she battled a confidence motion from her own Conservative party.

With the fate of the British prime minister in the balance, Fianna Fáil made it clear that it would not seek to bring down Mr Varadkar’s administration for at least a year. “The chaos in Westminster will not be allowed to spread to Ireland,” Mícheál Martin, Fianna Fáil leader, said.

The confidence-and-supply deal between the Irish premier’s Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil was due to lapse after a final budget vote this month. Wednesday’s move means an election is now likely in early 2020.

Fine Gael welcomed the opposition’s extension of their pact. “This commitment further strengthens Ireland’s hand in negotiating a successful outcome to Brexit, and securing all that we have achieved to date,” the party said in a statement.

The move to prolong Mr Varadkar’s government marks a shift after several weeks of talks between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Mr Martin had previously committed to avoiding an election before the terms of the UK’s scheduled exit from the EU were settled at the end of March. On Wednesday he said this would be extended to reflect the changed circumstances.

“Ireland is now in a period of heightened danger for our economy and for a political settlement [in Northern Ireland] which has been a beacon of light in our modern history,” he said.

Eoin O’Malley, a politics professor at Dublin City University, said: “Mícheál Martin was not going to try to take advantage of any difficulty for Ireland over Brexit by calling an election. He has been working hard to fix Fianna Fáil’s reputation, to make it appear as a responsible party of government.”

Long the dominant party in Ireland, Fianna Fáil suffered a crushing electoral defeat after the economic crash a decade ago. In 2016 it entered a voting pact with Enda Kenny, Mr Varadkar’s predecessor.

Mr Martin has backed Mr Varadkar’s stance on the backstop, saying the treaty agreed by Mrs May and Brussels to facilitate the UK’s withdrawal from the EU was “a good deal for all involved”.

The arrangement, resisted by Conservative Brexiters and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionists who prop up Mrs May’s government in Westminster, is designed to prevent the restoration of a hard border with Northern Ireland if there is no new EU-UK trade deal.

In spite of the prospect of political stability in Dublin, Mr Varadkar is likely to have little scope to give ground to London.  

“Even if he kind of wanted to — if he thought it would be advantageous to help Theresa May get a deal over the line — he is probably in a difficult position at home, in that any softening of his position will be seized upon by his opponents,” Prof O’Malley said.