Rift Valley violence sparks fears ahead of Kenyan elections

James Tangin is visibly angry as he picks through the ruins of his burnt-out home, the ashes still smouldering, and tries to make sense of an attack on his village.

“We’re not bandits or cattle thieves,” he says, shaking his head.

Kenya’s Rift Valley region has been the scene of deadly clashes in recent weeks between cattle rustlers and farmers. But Mr Tangin and his fellow villagers in Chepkalacha, where more than a dozen houses were destroyed, accuse the police of attacking their homes this week.

“I have no idea why the police did this,” says Mr Tangin, a teacher. “We all ran into the forest at the first sound of gunfire.”

The police refused to comment on the allegations. But the raid comes amid concerns that an escalation of violence in the Rift Valley is being fomented by politicians as east Africa’s dominant economy gears up for elections in August.

The unrest is blamed on “land invasions” — nomadic herders driving their livestock on to farmers’ land, ostensibly in search of grazing as the country suffers from drought. But politicians have been accused of encouraging the invasions to push out their opponents’ supporters, appease their own voters and profit from sales of stolen livestock.

“This is not about the drought, this is about power, wealth and politics,” says Kipruto Kimosop, a human-rights activist in Baringo who plans to run for a seat in the county assembly at the elections. “Politicians are exploiting this for political expediency. And business cartels are exploiting the insecurity to steal more livestock to make more money.”

More than a dozen people have been killed, including a British rancher, in recent weeks. The murders of a county assembly member and a parliamentary aspirant last month at a bar in Marigat town have been described as Kenya’s first political assassinations in more than a decade.

One MP was charged on Wednesday with inciting violence and other senior legislators have been implicated.

But many Kenyan politicians and analysts fear that if the crisis is not resolved, it risks triggering broader tribal unrest as the polls approach. About 1,200 people were killed in politically motivated tribal clashes after disputed elections in 2007, with the Rift Valley the epicentre of the violence.

Nomadic herders who have driven their livestock on to others’ land or have been caught stealing cattle and sheep, particularly in Baringo and Laikipia counties, say they are struggling to survive during a severe drought. Cattle rustling and so-called “land invasions” have blighted parts of rural Kenya for decades, particularly among the Pokot, Samburu and other tribes.

But the scale and timing of the current violence worries many.

Kalonzo Musyoka, an opposition leader, believes it is no coincidence that the unrest is happening months before Kenyans vote in the local and national elections.

“Why should this escalate six months before an election? You speculate on all manner of outcomes,” he says. “We only hope this will not be replicated in other parts of the country.”

The government has responded by declaring 19 areas “disturbed and dangerous” and recruiting hundreds of police reservists in the affected regions.

William Ruto, Kenya’s deputy president, said during a tour of Laikipia and Baringo this week that no mercy would be shown to perpetrators of violence.

“Any acts of incitement of the population to invade other people’s properties for whatever reason, we will roll the law over you,” he said.

Mr Ruto and President Uhuru Kenyatta were both charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court in relation to violence after the 2007 elections, when they were rivals. However, both cases were dropped before they reached trial and the two men are now seeking re-election together. The deputy president, who is from the Rift Valley, is also considered to be playing a longer game — burnishing his credentials with his base ahead of the 2022 poll, when Mr Kenyatta would be constitutionally barred from running.

William Koech, chief of Arabel village, which was attacked eight times in as many days last month, is convinced the unrest is politically motivated. He says his village was attacked by Pokot herdsmen, many of them teenagers, who were armed with an array of assault rifles.

“They were well trained. All our animals [that were stolen] just disappeared. That could not happen unless there was organisation and politicians were involved,” Mr Koech says. “People need money to win power and this is an easy way to get it.”

In Chepkalacha, villagers’ anger was directed to the new police reservists, who have had virtually no training.

“Yes there are bandits operating round here but we’re all farmers,” says Joshua Makal, the assistant village chief. “How could we be bandits when there’s been a police camp in the village for three years?”