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    Economic forecasting

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    • Friday, 24 March, 2023
      FT MagazineTim Harford
      What Mystic Meg can teach us about economic forecasting

      If you want to be admired for your predictions, temper your bold claims with vagueness

    • Sunday, 22 January, 2023
      Can you predict the year ahead better than these experts?

      We asked experts in predicting the future to answer questions about how 2023 will play out — and challenge FT readers to beat them

    • Friday, 6 January, 2023
      Chris Giles
      Cheer up. Economic prospects for 2023 are better than you think

      Forecasts for the year are bleak but the narratives we’re presented with have flaws

    • Wednesday, 30 November, 2022
      Neural stonks predictions

      Reversion-to-the-mean machine

    • Thursday, 29 September, 2022
      FT live news
      Live news updates from September 30: S&P downgrades UK outlook, UK pension funds sell off assets
    • Friday, 9 September, 2022
      Markets InsightHoward Marks
      The illusion of knowledge for investors

      Why rely on forecasts if they’re so easily rendered inaccurate?

    • Wednesday, 24 August, 2022
      The NY Fed vs Larry Summers

      Prime eco beef

    • Wednesday, 30 March, 2022
      Andrew Smithers
      What you thought you knew about interest rates and the market is wrong

      Conventional macroeconomic assumptions do not tally with data about returns on different kinds of capital

    • Monday, 3 January, 2022
      UK business & economy
      FT economists’ survey: people to feel worse-off as inflation and tax rises bite in 2022

      Experts’ full responses to questions on the year ahead for the UK economy

    • Monday, 3 January, 2022
      News in-depthUK business & economy
      Political uncertainty and Brexit will slow UK recovery in 2022, economists predict

      Annual FT survey shows living standards will fall as inflation outpaces wages in year ahead

    • Monday, 4 October, 2021
      Diane Coyle
      Change is needed in the next generation of economists

      The discipline has to update its assumptions in order to meet the biggest challenges facing society

    • Tuesday, 29 December, 2020
      Katie Martin
      Year in a word: * shaped recovery

      Markets proved powerless to resist a relentless barrage of letter shapes to describe how they might bounce back

    • Thursday, 16 April, 2020
      Chris Giles
      The OBR’s assumption that life will return to normal is optimistic

      The budgetary watchdog’s scenario is of a crisis that leaves almost no economic scars

    • Monday, 24 February, 2020
      News in-depthEM Squared
      Global inventories at 7-year low prior to coronavirus hit Premium content

      Manufacturers’ vulnerability to supply chain shock intensified by rundown in stock levels

    • Friday, 21 February, 2020
      Undercover EconomistTim Harford
      Economists should learn lessons from meteorologists

      Weather forecasters make hypotheses and test them daily

    • Wednesday, 12 February, 2020
      News in-depthEM Squared
      China leads dramatic pan-Asian wealth surge Premium content

      Latin America tumbles down the rankings after four decades of underperformance 

    • Thursday, 30 January, 2020
      beyondbricsPaul Jackson
      This will be Africa’s century

      Demographics will fuel the continent’s rise in a world of shrinking working-age populations

    • Wednesday, 29 January, 2020
      Federal Reserve
      Federal Reserve stands firm on interest rates

      Central bank statement notes household spending is ‘moderate’ rather than ‘strong’

    • Friday, 10 January, 2020
      News in-depthFT Alphaville
      Central bankers’ telling tales

      Words are a better guide than numbers on where the economy is heading. 

    • Sunday, 8 December, 2019
      Wolfgang Münchau
      Statistical comfort distorts our politics

      The problem with bad data is that it lures us into believing false truths

    • Wednesday, 20 November, 2019
      FT MagazineGillian Tett
      How to put some heart into rational economics

      In a time of complex issues such as populism and Brexit, a more human-centric vision of economics is needed

    • Thursday, 14 November, 2019
      News in-depthEM Squared
      Upbeat emerging market forecasts called into question Premium content

      IMF’s Panglossian 2020 vision is eyed with ‘bemusement’ in some quarters

    • Wednesday, 13 November, 2019
      News in-depthFT Alphaville
      JPMorgan goes bear hunting

      No picnics were had

    • Tuesday, 15 October, 2019
      Martin Wolf
      Global economic policymakers are playing with fire

      Too much of what ails the world economy is the result of ‘stupid stuff’

    • Thursday, 3 October, 2019
      Emerging markets
      ‘Systematic error’ driving overblown EM growth forecasts Premium content

      Trend growth has slowed sharply, catching out forecasters, Citi says

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