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This is an audio transcript of the Rachman Review podcast episode: ‘Is the Ukraine war reaching a turning point?’

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Gideon Rachman
Hello and welcome to the Rachman Review. I’m Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator, the Financial Times. This week’s podcast is about Ukraine and its much-anticipated counter-offensive. My guest is the FT’s Chris Miller, who speaks to us from Kyiv, a city that’s been under heavy bombardment in recent days. So is the war in Ukraine reaching a turning point?

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The missiles that struck Kyiv this week sent people scrambling to air raid shelters. But this week, Moscow has also come under attack from drones. And a few days earlier, a pro-Ukraine force had broken into Russia itself. Its leader was a Russian citizen, Denis Kapustin, who explains his motivations.

Reporter
You say this is a war for Russia?

Denis Kapustin
Yeah, because we are Russian volunteer corps.

Reporter
How do you know what Russian people believe?

Denis Kapustin
We’re Russian people, aren’t we?

Reporter
For you, where does this war finish?

Denis Kapustin
In Moscow. In Moscow. In Moscow. In my hometown.

Gideon Rachman
It’s a further sign of the war crossing the border into Russia. And all of these developments are taking place at a time when speculation is mounting about Ukraine’s plans to take the war to Russia. Some say the famous counter-offensive has already begun. Others say it’ll never start. A third school of thought are that these are preparatory operations by Ukraine designed to destabilise the Russians. To get the view from Kyiv, I consulted Chris Miller.

Chris Miller
I think we’ve seen a lot of signs that things are really beginning to heat up. There have been numerous Ukrainian strikes deep within Russian-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine and in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainians are clearly trying to knock out logistical centres, command and control centres generally to disrupt Russia’s defensive plans. We’ve also seen, you know, Russia ramping up its own air strikes here in Kyiv. Many of them have come in the last three or four days. That’s obviously part of Russia’s plan to try to disrupt Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Beyond those, we’ve seen, you know, some movement around the front line in the east of Ukraine, around the city of Bakhmut, which Russia has managed to seize full control over, but has lost some ground around the northern and southern flanks of the city. So it does look like Kyiv is trying to probe Russia’s defensive lines here and there to sort of gauge where its weaknesses are as it gears up for what I think a lot of people associate with the true counter-offensive, which is a more major ground advance.

Gideon Rachman
Yeah, I mean, there’s a lot of talk of this phrase “shaping operations”, which you also write about in the FT, as what Ukraine is about. Can you explain what that means?

Chris Miller
Yeah. So shaping operations are essentially the preparations that take place before any major forward thrust or ground counter-offensive, right? So are they a part of the counter-offensive? Broadly speaking, yes. But these are strikes on command and control centres, logistical hubs, maybe Russian air defence systems, things that would ultimately be used by Russia in its defences or even its own offences and make it difficult for Russia to better defend itself when Ukraine’s counter-offensive gets under way in earnest.

Gideon Rachman
And I mean, one concern must be that there’s been so much talk about this counter-offensive that Russia’s had ample warning. Is there any way in which Ukraine still has the element of surprise?

Chris Miller
Yeah, you know, I think that’s part of what is going on with these shaping operations. Ukraine is testing areas along the front line to see where Russia’s defences are weakest, to see where they might be able to break through. You know, for every day over the past several months that Ukraine has taken to prepare for its counter-offensive, Russia has had to dig in and bolster its defences. So Ukraine is also right now trying to, I think, publicly temper expectations. We saw this major counter-offensive last autumn where the Ukrainian forces retook a lot of Kharkiv region, nearly all of it. They managed to retake the city of Kherson in the south. It’s going to be difficult for Ukraine to repeat that success. A lot of people in the Ukrainian military believe, and also in the west. Western officials have been clear that, you know, the element of surprise isn’t there in the way that it was for Ukraine last August. But Ukraine is certainly trying to probe Russian defences up and down this 1,000km frontline to see where they might be able to have the greatest success.

Gideon Rachman
And, you know, when I was in Kyiv with you about five or six weeks ago, there was kind of differing views and there was a gloomy school who said, look, Ukraine hasn’t quite got what it needs from the west yet, that they’ve lost a lot of their best troops, that some of the people are gonna be doing the counter-offensive are very newly trained. We don’t know whether they’ll be able to withstand the pressures of battle. Are the Ukrainians feeling more confident now or are all those questions still there?

Chris Miller
You know, I think the Ukrainians are confident in their ability to defend themselves. What they worry about is having the proper weaponry to do it with. And that’s largely what they think the success of this counter-offensive is going to hinge on, right? They have overperformed throughout the 15 months of this war. Russia was supposed to take the capital in weeks, right? We remember all of that talk at the beginning. It also should have at many times over the course of the last 15 months been able to do a lot more and take more ground in the east. But Ukraine has managed to hold it off. There is this gloomy or more realistic school of thought and I think, you know, at least in my conversations with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, you know, they are taking a more, in their words, realistic approach to this counter-offensive. They know it’s going to be difficult to replicate the counter-offensive of last autumn. And so, you know, there is this realistic sense of we know what we’re capable of. We need all the western weaponry and ammunition that we can get in order to be as successful as possible. There’s no doubt in their mind that the future of western military assistance could hinge on their success on the battlefield and that they might not get the same opportunity in the future as they have right now.

Gideon Rachman
And of course, one surprising thing that has happened was this attack into Russia, which went on for a couple of days at least around the Belgorod region. And it seems to have been led by far-right elements, either Russians themselves or Ukrainians. Tell us the story — what happened there?

Chris Miller
Yeah, this is a really interesting and somewhat confusing incursion into Russia that we saw. There are these two groups. One is the Free Russia Legion. It purports itself to be composed largely, if not completely, of Russian citizens who have taken up arms on the Ukrainian side to fight against the Kremlin. And then there’s a second group called the Russian Volunteer Corps, which are led by Russian citizens as well. But the Russian Volunteer Corps is different in the sense that its leader is an open far-right extremist. Again, he is Russian, not Ukrainian, but he has lived in Ukraine for several years now. He actually spent much of his youth in Germany. He speaks fluent German, he speaks fluent English. I’ve spoken to him both in Russian and in English. His name is Denis Nikitin. Sometimes he goes by Denis Kapustin. His call sign is White Rex, and this is also the name of his white nationalist clothing company. So he led this incursion into Belgorod. And when I spoke with him by phone during the operation and after the operation, he said the goal here was really to show that Russia was incapable of protecting its own borders, that the state was actually weak. It was essentially a middle finger to Russia. And while he claimed that part of the operation was to liberate, in his words, part of this Belgorod region of Russia, ultimately they didn’t stay in there for long. It was about a 24-hour operation. They moved in with American military vehicles and then within a day, they were already out.

Gideon Rachman
What’s the attitude to this in Kyiv? Because in some ways they must be delighted. It’s hugely embarrassing for the Russians. But on the other hand, the whole Russian case, or a large part of it, is that Ukraine is in the hands of neo-Nazis, which has been largely laughed off in the west. But here you have an avowed far-right figure leading an attack into Russia. It’s kind of awkward, isn’t it?

Chris Miller
Yeah, it’s complicated, you know. At the same time, this is a Russian citizen. There are definitely some corners in Kyiv here who are watching this with glee as Russia fails to close off its borders and these groups of militias are very easily rolling into Russia. The far-right element that is at play here is largely dismissed because these are Russian citizens, not Ukrainian citizens. So if you speak to Ukrainian officials about this, they point to the fact that these are Russians and they’re taking up arms against their own country, you know. They will admit to supporting them in some ways, but not ultimately directing them — at least that is what the military intelligence directorate here told me.

Gideon Rachman
Or are there Russians with access, as you say, to American military vehicles?

Chris Miller
Yeah, that’s right. I mean, there’s no way that these groups could come into possession of American Humvees, American light tactical vehicles called MaxxPros without the support of the military intelligence unit or the military here. And both of these militias have been associated with them. The Free Russia Legion has been associated with the territorial defence forces here, which is under the structure of the armed forces of Ukraine, and the Russian volunteer corps has been associated with the military intelligence directorate in the defence ministry known as the Gur, and it’s headed by this really bold commander named Kyrylo Budanov, who is known for these types of ambitious and aggressive attacks that he plans in secret and then of course, when they happen, they deny responsibility and involvement, sort of with a wink and a nudge.

Gideon Rachman
And the other thing that’s been happening designed to unsettle the Russians have been these drone attacks over Moscow. Again, did the Ukrainians claim credit for that? What’s going on there?

Chris Miller
Yeah, you know, as we were waking up here in Kyiv and, you know, wiping the sleep from our very tired eyes after a fourth day in a row of Russian aerial attacks, we were seeing news of these drone attacks over Moscow. And of course, myself and other journalists went immediately for comment to Ukrainian officials. They’ve all said we have nothing to do with this. This is a Russian internal problem. But again, they’re saying this sort of with a wink and a nudge, right? The drones that we’ve seen in the footage do appear to look like the Ukrainian drones that many of us are aware of. You know, these types of attacks we know Ukraine has carried out before, they are for now saying we aren’t behind this. But it does appear clear that Ukrainians were behind these attacks.

Gideon Rachman
And you mentioned, of course, that Kyiv has been hit with much more ferocious attacks. And that, too, seems to be a bit of a change of, again, thinking back to those weeks I was with you in late March, early April. Kyiv seemed pretty not exactly peaceful. There were the occasional sort of air raid sirens and so on, but they really did seem to not be too concerned. This is a completely different order of attack, isn’t it, now?

Chris Miller
Yeah. These Russian air attacks have really stepped up in the past couple of weeks, certainly in the month of May. Tuesday morning’s attack was the 17th of the month of May and the fourth in the last, oh, I think, 48 hours or so. The Russians are firing cruise missiles, which are these ballistic missiles that come streaking through the sky at high speeds and are difficult to shoot down, although Ukrainians are having pretty good success with that. And then they’re also launching these Iranian suicide drones. We can hear those as they come in buzzing loudly over the city as they fly really low and then explode when the air defence downs them. But yeah, these attacks, they’re happening with greater frequency, you know, the sort of frequency that we were used to last October, November and December when Russia launched its first major air attacks. And now so they’re coming at more random times. Typically they would happen overnight. But in the last few days, we’ve also experienced some of them in the daytime during rush hour traffic even.

Gideon Rachman
And what does it say, do you think, about Russia’s state of military preparedness? Because, again, one of the relatively comforting things one heard when there was a relative lull was, well, the Russians are running out of the kind of ammunition they can throw at Kyiv. They can’t do this too often because they don’t have enough missiles, enough drones. But this would suggest otherwise.

Chris Miller
Yes and no. I think they’ve certainly done what they can to try to shift their manufacturing of missiles into overdrive. I can’t recall the exact numbers that analysts believe for them to have currently in store. But certainly part of what the Russians are doing and what they see could be worthwhile is expending a lot of what they have in order to try to weaken Ukraine’s more limited supply of air defence weapons and ammunition. The Ukrainians have been very clear that they need a lot more if they’re going to protect their skies longer term. Russia certainly has more ammunition and more of these weapon systems, not to mention just a larger fleet of aircraft, which is something that Kyiv is growing increasingly concerned about. If it is to have success on the battlefield, Ukraine is going to need more air defence systems to cover its infantry. And, you know, one thing that they’re worried about is Russia really hasn’t brought its air force into the war, as many people have expected. And so that’s something that they’re keeping a close eye on, too.

Gideon Rachman
And in fact, talking about air power, the Ukrainians had a big diplomatic breakthrough with the announcement around the time of the G7 summit that finally America is going to allow its allies to supply Ukraine with F-16s. And I saw the Ukrainian foreign minister around that time and he said, you know, this is great. The last taboo has been broken. The trouble is that those F-16s won’t really be able to take part in the counter-offensive, will they, because it takes time to train people to use them.

Chris Miller
Yeah, that’s right. You know, Ukraine has asked, you know, at each step of the way during this war for various weapons systems. And they like to say, you know, every time we ask, the first response is always no. The second is maybe and around the third or the fourth time, the west finally agrees to it. And they’re happy to get all of these weapons systems, especially these F-16s that may be coming down the pike now. But unfortunately, they say it always seems to come a little bit too late. So they really are hoping that they’ll be rushed in, that their pilots will get trained up in time to use them, that they can keep Russian forces back long enough before these planes really to be made to be of use in any kind of counter-offensive this year.

Gideon Rachman
Because some of the Americans I was talking to said, oh, they don’t really need the planes for the counter-offensive. It’s gonna be artillery driven and the air aspect of that war won’t be that important. But it sounds like not everyone’s convinced of that in Kyiv.

Chris Miller
No, certainly. Not everybody is convinced of that. And the Ukrainians say with greater air force and air defences here, they can better protect their infantry on the ground. This is going to be a combined operation that they launched when it comes to their counter-offensive. And so, they see having more jets, more air power as having a greater chance of success on the battlefield.

Gideon Rachman
And just to conclude, Chris, I mean, I hesitate to say we’re in a phony war period, because I’m sure it feels very real in Kyiv right now with all the missiles coming down. But it must be this sort of sense that something very important is gonna unfold over the next couple of months. Do you think the Ukrainians have a theory of a victory? Do they know how they think this might conclude if they can pull it off?

Chris Miller
Ukrainians are very clear about what they want to happen. They want to liberate all of their territory, going back to the borders that were set in place following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. So that would include taking all of the Luhansk Oblast that’s occupied, Donetsk Oblast that’s occupied, the oblasts or regions of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as the Crimean peninsula. But obviously there was a large section of territory in eastern Ukraine, in Donetsk and Luhansk regions that had been occupied for eight years prior to this full-scale invasion in February 2024. And I think a lot of Ukrainian officials would consider a successful counter-operation being one that sees Ukrainian forces get closer to liberating those territories and even encroaching on them or the border of Crimea in the south. That would mean a significant advance territorially speaking, and it would certainly put pressure on the Kremlin and deeply embarrass Russia’s military, which has underperformed throughout this conflict, I think a lot of people would say. But I think it’s sort of a wait and see how much we can get at this point.

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Gideon Rachman
That was the FT’s Chris Miller ending this edition of the Rachman review. Thanks for listening and please join me again next week.

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